Reform UK to spotlight migration amid falling support
In the first part of 2024, 14,200 immigrants arrived in the UK via small boats, a 44% drop compared to the same period the previous year. The Home Office attributes this decline to better enforcement and enhanced cooperation with French authorities. Amid this decline, Nigel Farage’s Reform UK is preparing a strategic week of high-profile events in Calais to refocus public attention on migration, a key issue for the party’s base. A person with knowledge of the plans confirmed the strategy.
The move is part of Reform UK’s effort to redirect focus from recent financial scrutiny and falling support. The party is seeking to highlight the ongoing migration issue, despite a reduction in the number of migrants arriving by small boat. The events are expected to take place next week and may include press conferences and a media event in Calais, a city where many migrants board dangerous dinghies to cross the English Channel.
Burnham faces pressure on migration policy
Andy Burnham, who became prime minister in June, has focused on popular measures in his early weeks in office. These include capping bus fares and reducing household energy bills. However, migration has emerged as a potential vulnerability for the new leader. Labour backbenchers are already voicing concerns about policies initiated under his predecessor, Keir Starmer, adding to the pressure on Burnham’s approach.
Burnham has expressed cautious optimism about progress in managing immigration. During a visit to Sheffield, he stated that Home Secretary Shabana Mahmood’s policies are beginning to have an impact. He noted that while crossings remain high during the peak season, the overall numbers are down and the rate of removals has increased. Burnham emphasized that there is more work to be done to address the migration challenge.
Farage’s favorability at lowest since 2024
Nigel Farage’s personal favorability has reached its lowest point since the 2024 election, with a net score of -32, compared to Burnham’s +19, according to polling by More in Common. This decline follows a series of negative reports about the Reform UK party, particularly regarding its finances. A £5 million ($6.7 million) donation to Farage just before he was elected as an MP has raised eyebrows and sparked questions about transparency.
Cottrell, Farage, and Reform UK all deny any wrongdoing, but the negative coverage has clearly impacted the party’s standing. Support for Reform has fallen from leading positions in early 2024 to being level with Labour, or slightly ahead in recent polls.
The timing of Reform UK’s renewed focus on immigration is strategic, as Europe remains on high alert after over 50,000 people illegally crossed the Spanish border between the African enclave of Ceuta and Morocco. This development has sparked discussions about the potential for a larger migration crisis in the UK, especially as the EU’s borderless Schengen zone could allow migrants to travel directly to Calais.
The Conservative Party, which has also tried to position itself as a firm anti-immigration force, has capitalized on the Ceuta crisis to bolster its own image. Chris Philp, the party’s home affairs spokesperson, stated in an emailed comment that if these illegal immigrants reach Spain, there is nothing stopping them from heading to Calais and attempting to cross the Channel.
Burnham responded to the Ceuta situation with concern, stating that the UK is in communication with the Spanish government to understand the implications of this crisis. He expressed a willingness to provide support while also being cautious about the potential impact on British borders. The migration issue is likely to remain a key topic as both Reform UK and the Conservatives seek to challenge Labour’s position.