US soybean sales and weather-driven price moves
According to the USDA, 3.045 million metric tonnes of US soybeans were sold in the week ending July 31. Traders watched closely for weather changes and energy market trends. Despite recent price declines, US prices stay elevated. The CIF New Orleans outright price for August delivery was $476.75 per metric ton on July 31.
Chicago Board of Trade September (U) futures dropped 29 cents in the week ending July 31 due to improved rain forecasts in the Corn Belt. A market participant noted the decline happened as the market 'realized yields will not be as bad as some had thought.'
Despite the decrease, US traders express optimism. The SOYBEX FOB New Orleans price for September delivery was $481.53 per metric ton on July 31. The US-China soybean trade continues, although at a slower pace. Chinese buyers acquired 264,000 tonnes of US soybeans in the week ending July 31. This was a sharp drop from earlier levels.
Brazilian soybeans hit 2.5-year highs, but buyers are cautious
Brazil’s FOB prices reached their highest level in 2.5 years in the week ending July 27, supported by strong export demand and a firm CBOT. Platts assessed the SOYBEX FOB Santos price for September delivery at $484.58 per metric ton on July 31, reflecting a 3.9% decline week over week.
Chinese buyers continue to prefer Brazilian soybeans despite high prices. A trader in China explained that Brazil’s old-crop soybeans 'still offer good value relative to US soybeans.' Brazil has about 60 million metric tonnes of unsold old crop. This positions it favorably for fourth-quarter shipments.
In Brazil, new-crop premiums are weaker but the drop remains limited compared to the recent rally in futures. As of July 31, the CFR China soybean price for September delivery was $531.31 per metric ton, with the basis at 255 cents over November futures.
Traders watch US weather and China demand
A trader in the CIF New Orleans market noted that the 'weather premium was also taken off soybean futures.' This was after rain forecasts for the Corn Belt alleviated concerns of a poor harvest. August is a crucial time for US soybean development. Traders are in a 'weather market phase,' according to a Brazilian trader.
Aaron Gerdts, a principal crop analyst at S&P Global Energy CERA, stated the big drop in prices 'was related to weather, energy, and the market being overpriced.' Given Brazil’s stockpile of about one-third of its 2025-26 crop, it maintains a competitive edge against the US into the fourth quarter.
US traders linked the earlier price increases to worries about dry conditions in the US, the conflict in the Middle East boosting energy markets, recent Chinese purchases of US soybeans, and strong demand for soybean meal. From July 14 to July 24, the August (Q) soybeans contract climbed 55.25 cents, rising from 1,192.75 cents per bushel to 1,248 cents per bushel, while the September (U) contract rose 59 cents, from 1,181.25 cents per bushel to 1,240.25 cents per bushel.
The US Department of Agriculture confirmed the sale of 3.045 million metric tonnes of US soybeans for this year, with increased sales during the week that began on July 14.
Traders in Brazil said the recent price surge was driven by firm export demand, a growing domestic crush, inconsistent farmer sales, and the influence of CBOT futures. Despite Chinese buyers showing caution amid high prices and declining crush margins, Brazil is expected to remain competitive with the US in soybean shipments later in the year. Traders are cautious about the future, with one Brazilian trader stating, 'It’s hard to predict if prices will remain high,' adding that August is a key month for US soybean development.