Bitcoin took center stage in a tense Thursday session, trading just under $64,000 as geopolitical tensions flared and the U.S. Federal Reserve kept interest rates on hold. Despite the Fed’s decision, three officials pushed for a rate increase, and U.S.-Iran tensions sent energy prices soaring. Meanwhile, the broader market struggled, with the Dow dropping 2.2% and the Nasdaq hitting a three-month low.
After Iran fired multiple ballistic missiles toward U.S. forces, crude surged by 8%, wiping out previous losses. President Donald Trump warned of retaliation, intensifying uncertainty in energy markets and amplifying economic anxieties.
Crypto remains resilient, but not unscathed
While Bitcoin remained stable at $63,915, the DeFi sector saw stronger movement, with tokens like Uniswap’s (UNI) and Injective gaining ground. Earlier in the session, however, the crypto market faced turbulence, with $286 million in liquidated futures positions over 24 hours, as reported by CoinGlass. Long positions accounted for $186 million in liquidations, and shorts saw $100 million wiped out, showing the market swung hard in both directions before leveling off.
Altcoins are feeling the strain, as the data reveals. Only a few of the top 25 coins, including ADA, TRX, and ZEC, saw positive 24-hour open interest-adjusted CVDs. The overwhelming majority showed net outflows, with bears clearly controlling the narrative and leveraged positions retreating.
Fed’s split decision leaves rate-hike risk on the table
Rabobank expects speculation about future rate hikes to resurface, especially if inflation readings surprise. Higher borrowing costs typically weaken appetite for risky assets, which can pressure crypto prices. Bitcoin’s BVIV (30-day implied volatility) dipped below 38%, a level historically associated with volatility floors. This suggests traders are on edge, expecting a potential bounce in swings if conditions shift.
Futures data points to a slight bearish tilt in positioning. According to Coinglass, shorts accounted for 51% of the taker volume in crypto futures, signaling a cautious stance. Uniswap’s UNI token rose 4.46% during the session but saw a decline in futures open interest, hinting at traders locking in profits or re-evaluating their exposure.
Options bets point to cautious optimism
Traders are betting on potential upside in both Bitcoin and Ether, according to data from Deribit. BTC call options at strike prices of $70,000 and $75,000 led the 24-hour volume, offering asymmetric exposure if prices rise sharply. The same bullish pattern appears in ether, where all five most traded options are calls. This suggests a belief that while volatility remains in check, a breakout move is possible if conditions turn favorable.
Zcash (ZEC) extended its recent upward trend, adding 1.54% over 24 hours, outpacing most other privacy coins. Hyperliquid (HYPE) took a hit, slipping 0.47% to $53.64 as it continued a 30% correction from previous highs. Lighter (LIT) gave back 4.22% during the period but has since clawed back some ground, suggesting sellers may be losing steam after a significant drop from its July peak.
Jupiter (JUP) fell 1.48% following a brief rebound the day before, with trading volume shrinking to $23 million from earlier highs well above $50 million. This decline in activity signals a lack of conviction among traders, highlighting the broader uncertainty in the market.
Ether’s open interest has also dipped slightly to under 14 million tokens, down from a six-week high. This drop indicates a reluctance to take on leveraged positions, despite ether’s performance outpacing Bitcoin this month.
Injective was the standout performer over 24 hours, rising 6.95% as DeFi tokens outperformed. FET, another DeFi contender, added 3.28% after a tough week. These gains reflect a broader theme of DeFi outpacing Bitcoin and Ethereum in the current market climate.
Monero (XMR) edged up 0.4%, showing modest strength in the privacy coin sector. However, it remains far behind ZEC, which continues to lead its peers. Meanwhile, the market remains in a state of balance, with both trading volume and open interest showing little change from the prior day.
Overall, the crypto market is in a holding pattern, with prices stabilizing after a volatile session. While Bitcoin remains steady, altcoins are grappling with bearish sentiment and a lack of strong buying interest. Traders are closely monitoring the Fed’s next move and geopolitical developments for any sign of a breakout in either direction.