Grail, a firm separated from Illumina in 2024, has experienced a notable drop in its stock value, falling from a high of $116.06 to just under $70. Now, the market is assessing whether this drop offers a chance for investors to buy at a more favorable price.
The NHS England trial was a significant milestone for Grail’s Galleri blood test, which is designed to identify early-stage cancers. When it did not meet its primary objective in February, the stock value significantly declined. However, the results were not entirely negative. The test still demonstrated the ability to detect cancers in earlier, more treatable stages, which could support ongoing investor confidence.
Despite the lack of FDA approval, Grail continues to sell its Galleri test through direct sales channels. The test, priced between $749 and $949, is accessible to individuals, employer groups, and hospital initiatives. This direct payment approach ensures the company's operations continue, even while it awaits regulatory endorsement.
Growth Without Profit
Financial analysts project that Grail's revenue will increase to $281 million by 2028, nearly doubling from $147 million in 2025. However, the firm is not currently on a path to profitability. The stock currently trades at a valuation of 17 times 2025 sales, which is considered high. Yet, some market observers believe there is potential for a stock resurgence should the FDA approve the Galleri test.
An expert analyst recommends maintaining a hold position on the stock rather than selling it off. The reasoning is that Grail possesses a robust product with measurable market demand, even in the absence of complete regulatory clearance.