midterms, drawing parallels to the 1979-81 hostage crisis during the Jimmy Carter administration. The goal is to use the prolonged tensions to negatively impact Trump’s political standing. Public sentiment in Iran is heavily focused on seeking retaliation against Trump personally, with this motive evident in the widespread calls for revenge at recent public events, such as the funeral of former Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei.
Tehran's revised negotiation roadmap
Kazem Gharibabadi, Iran’s deputy foreign minister, has laid out a complex path for moving forward with the next stage of nuclear negotiations. Key requirements include the removal of U.S. sanctions, the lifting of the blockade on Iranian ports, the unfreezing of Iranian assets, and new security commitments from the U.S. Government. These demands aim to lengthen the negotiation process, which could stretch well beyond the midterm elections, potentially leading to a resolution being delayed until after November.
Domestic impact and political speculation
State-run Iranian media closely track Trump’s declining public support, attributing his waning popularity to the unpopularity of the war and increasing oil prices. Meh News, a news agency with close ties to the Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps, highlights how Iran has placed Trump in a difficult position. Trump must choose between continuing the conflict, which might worsen economic conditions and damage his approval ratings, or backing down, which could lead to backlash from his supporters. This puts the outcome of the war at the mercy of the November elections, rather than traditional battlefield results.
Analysts suggest that Trump is caught in a significant dilemma. Prolonging the war could harm the U.S. economy and further lower his approval, while easing tensions may be seen as a retreat from his hardline policies. As such, the war's trajectory could be determined by the results of the midterm elections. Iranian media highlight the possibility that the conflict's political outcome could affect not only U.S. domestic affairs but also its foreign policy for years to come.
Marc Zell, the chair of Republicans Overseas Israel, noted that the midterms are a central focus for the Trump administration. He stated that the American public has become fatigued with the war and is looking for a way to minimize conflict. This suggests that the U.S. government is managing its policies carefully to prevent the Democrats from gaining control of Congress, a move that could significantly impact Trump’s political power.
Divergent views among Iranian analysts
Mostafa Zahrani, a former Iranian diplomat, argues that if the Democrats win the midterms, it could lead to Trump’s impeachment or the end of funding for the war. On the other hand, Nasser Hadian, a professor of international relations at Tehran University, believes waiting for Trump to weaken is not a viable strategy for Iran.
Hadian warns that a weakened Trump could face more pressure from Israel and other U.S. allies to adopt an even more aggressive stance toward Iran. This would reduce the likelihood of positive outcomes for Iran. He stresses that those who believe waiting for the midterms is a smart strategy lack an accurate understanding of U.S. politics and the potential consequences of such a decision.
The contrasting opinions among Iranian analysts highlight the uncertainty surrounding the future of U.S.-Iran relations. While some believe Trump's position will weaken and offer a favorable scenario for Iran, others warn that delaying action may backfire, as Trump could become more isolated or face increased external pressure.
Tehran's current strategy reflects a calculated attempt to use domestic U.S. politics to its advantage. By prolonging negotiations and linking them to the midterms, Iran aims to influence Trump's actions and create a more favorable outcome. Whether this will succeed remains to be seen, but it is clear that the situation is being closely watched by both U.S. and Iranian observers.
Despite the uncertainty, it is evident that Iran is treating the midterms as a pivotal moment in the broader conflict with the U.S. Analysts and political figures in Iran are carefully weighing the potential outcomes of the elections and how they might shape the future of the war. With the November date approaching, the political stakes are high, and the potential for further conflict remains significant.
As the world watches this unfolding scenario, the focus remains on how the U.S. political landscape will influence its foreign policy decisions. For Iran, the midterms represent a window of opportunity to shift the dynamics in its favor, but the long-term success of this strategy is still uncertain. Whether Trump’s administration will face political consequences at the ballot box or maintain its current trajectory remains to be seen.