A drifting upper stage of a SpaceX rocket, launched over a year ago to deliver lunar landers, will strike the moon’s surface accidentally this Wednesday. Scientists and skywatchers are watching for the event, as it marks the second accidental rocket crash into the moon in recent years.
Speed and location of impact
The impact speed is expected to be 5,400mph—seven times the speed of sound—according to Bill Gray, a space tracking expert. The collision is set to occur near the Einstein Crater on the moon’s sunlit western limb.
The moon’s gravity is weak, and its lack of atmosphere means dust and debris will remain suspended in space for a longer time than on Earth. Researchers believe this event could offer insights into the risks posed by space debris.
Scientific interest in the fallout
Benjamin Fernando of the Los Alamos National Laboratory said the dust plume could stretch for miles and be visible via telescope for tens of minutes. While the flash itself may not be noticeable from Earth, the ejected material could provide new data on how debris behaves in the moon’s environment.
Orbiting observatories to capture impact
NASA’s Lunar Reconnaissance Orbiter and South Korea’s Danuri lunar orbiter are set to take images of the impact site before and after the collision. The resulting crater is expected to be about 90ft wide and 16ft deep, too small to be seen from Earth but clear in lunar imagery.
This incident follows a similar crash in 2022 involving a Chinese rocket stage that left a mark on the moon’s far side. Both events raise questions about how space debris is managed as more satellites and spacecraft fill Earth’s orbit.