Elon Musk’s aerospace venture, SpaceX, became part of the Nasdaq-100 index on July 7 after a special rule change allowed its swift inclusion. This milestone positioned the company among some of the largest and most influential technology firms globally. With a valuation of $1.48 trillion, SpaceX now exceeds the market caps of Meta Platforms and Tesla but still ranks behind Apple, Amazon, and Alphabet. These five companies form the upper echelon of the world’s most valuable corporations. However, the question of whether SpaceX’s valuation is warranted based on its financial performance and business model lingers among investors and analysts.
Relative to the so-called Magnificent Seven, SpaceX is a much smaller company in terms of sales. Its high valuation implies that investors believe the company is significantly more valuable than its current financials suggest. Goldman Sachs analysts project that AI could generate 100 times its current revenue by 2030, while Morgan Stanley estimates SpaceX’s revenue could reach $3.4 trillion by 2040. For the next two years, Wall Street anticipates $39 billion in 2026 and $73 billion in 2027, which would equate to an 87% growth rate. This forecast matches the rapid growth rates seen in recent periods at companies like Nvidia.
Financial Challenges Ahead
Despite these high expectations, SpaceX is not yet making a profit. In the first quarter of 2026, the company recorded a net loss exceeding $4 billion. This is a stark contrast to the other members of the Magnificent Seven, all of which are currently profitable. Still, investors remain optimistic about SpaceX’s long-term prospects. The Starlink satellite broadband division, for example, has already shown the potential to generate positive net income, offering a glimpse into how the company might become financially viable.
SpaceX sees artificial intelligence as its most significant growth opportunity. The company has broadened its scope by acquiring Cursor, an AI-driven coding platform, in addition to its core rocket launching and Starlink satellite broadband businesses. SpaceX estimates its total addressable market at $28.5 trillion, with $26.5 trillion of that coming from AI. However, its large language model, Grok, faces intense competition from well-established names like OpenAI’s ChatGPT, Alphabet’s Gemini, and Anthropic’s Claude. These rivals have already captured significant market share and brand recognition.
AI Expansion and Competition
While the space component of SpaceX’s operations has captured public attention, the company’s AI ambitions place it in a highly contested sector. Other members of the Magnificent Seven have already laid out clear AI strategies. Apple is embedding AI features into its iPhone and other devices, while Nvidia is playing a central role in supplying the hardware that drives AI development worldwide. Although SpaceX is seen as a potential competitor in the AI space, it has yet to prove itself.
Wall Street analysts are cautiously optimistic about SpaceX’s financial turnaround. They project a modest profit for the third quarter of 2026, with an average earnings-per-share (EPS) target of $0.08 for the quarter. For the full year, a loss of $0.55 per share is still expected, followed by a positive EPS of approximately $0.65 in 2027. These figures indicate a path toward profitability, but they also show that the road ahead is still long and uncertain.
Outlook and Investor Sentiment
Elon Musk has a track record of turning unprofitable companies into market leaders, as seen with Tesla. However, SpaceX remains in the early stages of that journey. The stock has declined by 25% since its inclusion in the Nasdaq-100, reflecting the market’s cautious stance. If the company fails to deliver on its financial projections or falls short in key areas like AI and space ventures, the gap between SpaceX and the Magnificent Seven could widen significantly. The company’s ability to maintain and justify its high valuation will depend heavily on its performance over the next few years.