In a quiet village near the Uganda-South Sudan border in July 2025, a once-thriving food-distribution site stood nearly abandoned. The long lines of refugees who used to gather every month to receive basic rations had vanished, leaving behind only empty bags and hollow hope. The site had been a lifeline for thousands, but the sudden withdrawal of US support for the program had left aid operations in disarray, with food supplies dwindling to bare minimums.
The US decision to dismantle the United States Agency for International Development (USAID) froze roughly $950 million in assistance to Uganda. While the most immediate impact was on food aid, the cuts also deeply affected health programs, education, and community development. Scholars now warn that the abrupt withdrawal is fueling a surge in violence and instability, with Uganda becoming the epicenter of a regional crisis.
A humanitarian system under strain
Uganda, home to nearly two million refugees and asylum seekers, has long been a global model for refugee policy. The country allows displaced people to work, go to school, and use public services, treating them with dignity and respect. USAID support had been critical in maintaining this system, especially in food security, healthcare, education, and sanitation. However, the steep funding cuts have pushed the entire humanitarian architecture to the brink.
With aid slashed, refugees are now receiving only $5 per person each month instead of the $16 required to meet basic needs. The World Food Programme (WFP) faced a $50 million loss in 2025 alone, forcing it to cut one million people from its food-assistance programs. The impact on communities, already stretched thin, has been immediate and severe.
The AVSI Foundation, a program supported by the UN Refugee Agency to help 81,000 refugees and 3,500 Ugandans escape poverty, was also shuttered. Meanwhile, the President’s Emergency Plan for AIDS Relief (PEPFAR) saw disruptions in its healthcare programs, threatening antiretroviral treatment for thousands. Schools, teacher-training programs, and other educational initiatives were halted, worsening conditions for refugee families and their children.
Rising tensions and dwindling trust
As resources disappeared, the fragile balance between refugees and host communities began to crack. Desperation drove many to turn to begging, theft, or forced migration in search of food and shelter. Competition over essentials like water, firewood, and arable land intensified, while environmental degradation worsened through deforestation and unsustainable land use. Local tensions flared as resources became scarce and survival a zero-sum game.
Refugees are increasingly viewed as economic burdens rather than fellow citizens in need. The growing resentment is eroding trust and deepening prejudice. Peacebuilding initiatives and dialogue efforts—once vital for conflict prevention and community cohesion—are no longer in place to mediate disputes or foster understanding. Without these tools, the risk of open conflict is growing, especially in border regions already prone to instability.
Many of Uganda’s refugee camps are located in districts vulnerable to armed-group activity. As conditions in these areas deteriorate, the potential for a humanitarian crisis to spiral into a transnational security emergency is rising. Refugees who can no longer survive in their current settlements are moving into new areas, often displacing others and igniting fresh tensions. In some cases, they are even returning to countries still ravaged by war.
Forced repatriation and new dangers
In 2025 and early 2026, the Ugandan government began refusing new asylum seekers from Eritrea, Somalia, and Ethiopia due to a lack of funding and support. Some were sent back to their home countries, which remain in active conflict. Sudanese refugees, many of whom had fled the violence in their homeland, were also repatriated under pressure, leaving them to face war-torn conditions once again.
The long-term costs of the aid cuts are now becoming apparent. The US may have seen short-term savings from the $950 million reduction, but the growing instability threatens to trigger costly military, humanitarian, and diplomatic interventions. The financial burden of managing the fallout—armed-group recruitment, cross-border violence, and further displacement—could far exceed what was initially saved.
Washington’s decision to cut USAID has not only disrupted aid programs in Uganda, but it has also triggered a cascade of consequences across East Africa. What was once a beacon of hope for millions is now a potential flashpoint for violence. The savings from this move will look meager if the region descends into conflict, leaving the US to bear the cost of future crises.