Hungary's April election signaled a change. Viktor Orban's Fidesz party and its allies, who had controlled roughly 80 percent of the country's media for 16 years, found their usual strategies ineffective this time. Even though their campaign tried to shape public opinion, the opposition's message gained ground.
Opposition narratives gained momentum
Repsense, a narrative intelligence company based in Vilnius, looked into over 816,863 articles and posts across Hungarian-language news and social media platforms like Facebook, YouTube, TikTok, and Instagram during the four months before the election. They collected data on content appearing across platforms to see how public opinion was influenced.
The data showed that content aligning with Fidesz themes appeared around four times more often than opposition messaging. But the opposition's responses spread more quickly and widely in several instances.
A significant case was the government's attempt to discredit the opposition Tisza party by organizing a false-flag protest. During a Tisza rally, government-linked actors used a Ukrainian flag in an effort to portray the party as supportive of Ukraine. Pro-Fidesz outlets and accounts shared the images, trying to frame the opposition.
However, 444.hu, an independent news outlet, quickly uncovered the truth. It reported that the protest had been planned by key staff at a Fidesz-linked digital campaign group. The outlet also identified the two teenagers responsible for unfurling the flag. One later posted on Instagram with a Fidesz youth organization, confirming their involvement.
The truth outpaced misinformation
Repsense analyzed how fast the content spread using metrics like viral intensity—measured by speed, acceleration, and how much of a narrative’s reach was achieved in the first six hours. In the case of the flag stunt, original posts scored 28 points on the viral intensity scale. The debunking content reached 44 points, surpassing the original fake message in reach and speed.
Mykolas Katkus, co-founder and CEO of Repsense, noted that the public was no longer just absorbing propaganda but actively countering it. He described this shift as a return to the early hope of social media as a tool for civic action, similar to what happened during the Arab Spring.
Katkus said the information environment in Hungary had developed an
The role of independent media was crucial. Kata Horvath, a media researcher from Eotvos Lorand University in Budapest, pointed out that Hungary’s free press worked hard under difficult conditions to uncover important stories. These included the flag incident and a high-profile scandal in 2024 involving President Katalin Novak. Novak resigned after it came to light that she had pardoned a former deputy director of a children's home who helped cover up child sexual abuse.
Experts and polls played a part
Public trust in experts helped to shape the election’s outcome. Bulcsu Hunyadi, from a Budapest think tank, noted that independent experts helped explain the facts to the public and counter government claims.
Repsense also looked into the role of polls. Fidesz-aligned institutes claimed the party would win, while independent polls showed an opposition lead. The government's polling report, from the Nezopont Institute, scored 15 on the viral intensity index. But the counter-narratives from independent sources scored 35, suggesting the public was more receptive to the independent findings.
As the election neared, the data made it clear that public engagement had changed. People used social media not to spread falsehoods, but to uncover them. The election outcome reflected not just media dominance, but a shift in public behavior that surprised even the most powerful political forces in the country.