Numbers at the chokepoint
During the week ending August 2, only about four commercial ships on average passed through the Strait of Hormuz each day. This is a drastic 96% drop compared to the same week in 2025, when roughly 90 vessels crossed the strait daily. The tonnage movement also plummeted, with around 143,000 metric tonnes of goods being transported through the channel each day. That figure represents a sharp 96% reduction from the 3.5 million metric tonnes moved during the corresponding period of the previous year. This is not a temporary slowdown but a long-term decline that has persisted since February 28, with traffic and tonnage levels far below historical norms. Only minor spikes in recovery have been observed.
The leverage of geography
Iran holds a critical advantage due to the Strait of Hormuz’s geographic location, which it can use to shape global trade dynamics. In 2025, about 20 million barrels of crude oil and refined petroleum products passed through the strait every day. Of those shipments, around 80% were directed to Asian markets. China and India combined accounted for 44% of the crude oil that transited the strait, highlighting the region’s deep reliance on the energy flows through this narrow passage.
The significance of the strait goes beyond oil. For instance, India sources nearly half of its imported ammonia and nitrogen-based fertilizers from producers in the Gulf. If this flow were disrupted, it could cause fertilizer shortages. In turn, this could lead to higher food prices and lower agricultural output. This effect would be especially felt in countries that depend heavily on food imports. Another underappreciated dependency is helium, which is used in high-tech and medical industries. Gulf states, particularly Qatar and the United Arab Emirates, are key suppliers of helium to the region. These supplies support industries like semiconductor manufacturing and medical imaging.
The cost of coercion
By restricting shipping through the strait, Iran can influence global energy markets. It can also increase shipment delays and drive up insurance costs for commercial shipping. But its actions are not without consequence. Iran itself relies on these same trade routes for its exports and imports. This means it also risks economic harm from prolonged disruptions. For Gulf states, the stakes are high. Export revenues could fall, and infrastructure like ports and logistics hubs could face greater challenges. The United States, while not dependent on the strait for oil, still suffers rising fuel prices domestically. It must also spend on naval operations to ensure commercial vessels can pass safely.
Gulf nations are also making major investments in artificial intelligence (AI) and building data centers. They hope to become key players in the global AI economy by leveraging their access to affordable energy. However, any increase in energy prices or infrastructure disruptions could threaten these plans. Iran’s strategy is broader than just oil—it seeks to generate enough economic pressure. It aims to push Gulf governments to reduce tensions in the region.
The ripple effects of Hormuz disruptions stretch into areas that are often overlooked. For example, Gulf countries export large amounts of fertilizers through the strait. A disruption in this flow, combined with higher natural gas and shipping costs, could lead to less available fertilizer, harming agricultural production and potentially spiking food prices globally, particularly for countries that depend on imported food.
Helium, a critical but often underappreciated resource, is another point of vulnerability. It is used in semiconductor manufacturing, medical imaging, and clean technologies. Because helium is hard to store and liquefaction facilities are limited, any disruption at the strait could impact supply chains in Asia’s advanced manufacturing and healthcare sectors. This broader economic reach demonstrates how Iran’s control over a geographic chokepoint can have consequences far beyond immediate energy markets.
Strategic implications and global responses
The impact of Hormuz disruptions is not limited to energy or agricultural sectors—it extends into high-tech and strategic industries. Gulf states are trying to position themselves as global leaders in AI, but rising energy prices and the risk of infrastructure attacks could hinder these efforts. Meanwhile, the U.S. is caught in a delicate balancing act, aiming to protect global trade routes while managing pressure from Gulf allies and Asian energy importers, many of whom are suffering from rising costs and potential supply shortages.
In the short term, these disruptions force shipping companies to pay more for insurance and freight, while governments and industries look for alternatives. Some are already exploring rerouted trade routes or increasing domestic production of critical commodities. However, these solutions are expensive and often temporary. The long-term effects of Hormuz disruptions could reshape global supply chains, with lasting impacts on energy, food, and technology sectors.
As the situation unfolds, it becomes clear that Iran’s control over this strategic corridor is both a strength and a risk. While it can wield economic pressure by slowing trade, it cannot indefinitely maintain that leverage without facing pushback and potential retaliation. The true test for Tehran is not in how much it can restrict traffic, but in how it uses this power to shape outcomes in a region where the stakes are growing higher by the day.