António Guterres warned the UN faces 'imminent financial collapse' in January 2024, a crisis driven largely by U.S. arrears that account for over 95% of what is owed to the regular budget. As Washington's financial support wanes, many observers speculate Beijing will fill the void. But in Bogota, the reality is more complex. China contributes significantly more to the UN system than it did a decade ago, yet its influence remains carefully managed.
The Numbers Behind China's Rise
Under the 2025-2027 assessment scale, China will cover 20% of the UN's regular budget, a figure that has grown as the nation's economy expanded. This makes Beijing the second-largest contributor after the U.S., which shoulders 22%. China is also the second-largest funder of UN peacekeeping operations. These figures are often taken as signs that Beijing is on course to replace Washington.
But the story changes when looking at voluntary funding. Earmarked contributions—which allow donors to direct money toward specific programs or regions—remain the real test of a nation's commitment. In 2024, the U.S. amount. Beijing’s voluntary funding has increased from a low base but still lags far behind what its economic weight would suggest.
Chinese officials routinely emphasize that they act 'within their own capacity' (力所能及), a phrase that reflects a selective and cautious approach. This strategy allows Beijing to support initiatives that align with its priorities while avoiding direct competition with the U.S. in areas where Washington has long held influence. For instance, China tends to avoid organizations deeply shaped by American funding and personnel.
China’s influence is also evident in its push to increase the number of Chinese nationals in international organizations. By 2025, 1,641 Chinese nationals were working across the UN system, a figure that remains well below the more than 5,074 U.S. nationals. China has also campaigned for Chinese candidates to lead specialized agencies, such as the Food and Agriculture Organization. But while Beijing is making progress in some areas, it has not achieved institutional dominance.
Rhetoric and Reality
Beijing consistently calls for a stronger, U.N.-centered international system and defends the organization's authority. Yet this rhetoric must be balanced against the 'within its capacity' narrative, which preserves Beijing's discretion on the scale and direction of its contributions. The result is a careful, calculated rise that avoids open-ended global responsibilities.
China's UN strategy is not a full replacement for U.S. leadership but rather a careful expansion of influence where political returns are high and risks are low. As the U.S. steps back, Beijing is filling gaps selectively, avoiding direct conflict with Washington while amplifying its voice on issues that matter most to it.