The attack that killed three U.S. soldiers at a military base in Jordan on October 7 highlights Iran’s ongoing capacity to inflict heavy casualties. This incident underscores the country’s military strength five months into the U.S.-Israel war on Iran. The strike, executed by the Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), marks the first time U.S. forces have been killed in such a direct Iranian operation since the war began.
The strike took place amid a 11-day escalation between the U.S. and Iran, with both sides exchanging air strikes. Analysts note that Iran has rebuilt its military capabilities more quickly than expected, and its tactics have grown more precise. According to Jennifer Kavanagh, the director of military analysis at Defense Priorities, Iran remains a formidable force and is not as 'combat ineffective' as the Pentagon claims.
Vulnerability of U.S. Bases in the Region
The design and location of U.S. bases in the Middle East and Gulf have made them vulnerable to Iranian strikes. According to Andreas Krieg, a senior lecturer at King’s College London, these bases are often exposed and within reach of Iran’s advanced missile and drone systems. Many of the facilities are semi-permanent, built to withstand rockets and mortars but not the high-impact warheads of precision ballistic missiles.
Krieg explains that even near-misses from these missiles can be dangerous. Traumatic brain injuries can occur from blast overpressure, a common result of such incidents. Additionally, when U.S. air defense systems like the Patriot and THAAD intercept incoming threats, the resulting debris can cause further injuries and damage.
The official U.S. military death toll in the war has now reached 18, with three of those deaths added in the latest Jordan strike. Other casualties include seven soldiers who were killed in March when Iran attacked a tactical operations center in Kuwait and an airbase in Saudi Arabia.
Escalated Intent and Precision of Iranian Attacks
Iran’s ability to continue targeting U.S. military assets is not solely due to technology, but also a clear intent to do so. Mona Yacoubian, the director of the Middle East program at the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS), states that Iran’s recent attacks show a 'greater intent' than in earlier phases of the conflict. This shift in strategy suggests a more aggressive approach to directly striking American military positions.
Yacoubian adds that this new pattern could be attributed to a mix of factors—improved accuracy from Iran, the gradual breakdown of U.S. radar and defense systems, and the possibility of random 'lucky hits' from the sheer volume of attacks. The increased intensity in recent strikes suggests a strategic evolution on Iran’s part.
The war has already drained an estimated $37 billion from the Pentagon since the previous ceasefire collapsed on July 8. The U.S. military has reported over 500 wounded personnel and nearly 220 structures or pieces of major equipment that have been damaged or destroyed. These include facilities in Kuwait, Saudi Arabia, and Jordan, among others.
In addition to the 18 U.S. military deaths, some casualties have been unrelated to direct Iranian strikes. These include a group of airmen who died in a refueling accident in March and an Army sergeant who was killed during a controlled drone detonation in Iraq.
Despite the U.S. military’s claims of dominance, Iran’s asymmetric warfare tactics have continued to test American air defenses. By using a combination of drones and cruise missiles, Iran can overwhelm U.S. systems. These weapons can travel at varying speeds and follow different trajectories, making interception harder. This strategy increases the chance that at least some threats will break through the defensive line, causing casualties.