A Pattern of Escalation and Retaliation
The United States and Iran are locked in a cycle of airstrikes, drone attacks, and missile launches, with daily violence marking the collapse of a temporary ceasefire reached in June. There is no clear political resolution on the horizon, and tensions continue to escalate. Kelly Grieco, a senior fellow at the Stimson Center's Reimagining US Grand Strategy Program, warns that the conflict is evolving into a recurring pattern of military action without a sustainable solution. She described the situation as a potential 'mow the lawn' approach, where the US and Iran alternately reduce each other's capabilities only for those capabilities to regrow over time. This cycle could stretch out endlessly, with neither side achieving a decisive victory.
The US has stepped up its air campaign, launching strikes across Iranian territory, while Tehran retaliates by targeting US military assets and key allies in the region. Meanwhile, Iranian-backed Houthi rebels in Yemen have intensified their attacks, posing a direct threat to Saudi Arabia’s maritime trade routes. This widening front has raised concerns that the conflict could spread to additional strategic chokepoints, further destabilizing the region. The Strait of Hormuz, through which approximately 20% of the world’s oil and gas once passed, remains a focal point of the conflict, with Iran continuing to disrupt shipping in the area.
Despite the growing violence, diplomatic efforts are still ongoing. Iranian Interior Minister Eskandar Momeni recently traveled to Pakistan, one of the key mediators in the June ceasefire agreement, in an attempt to reinvigorate stalled negotiations. However, the chances of a breakthrough remain slim. President Donald Trump has expressed some interest in talks with Iran in the past, but he has shown little enthusiasm for new discussions, stating clearly on Tuesday that the US has 'no interest in meeting.' Instead, he has signaled a willingness to expand the American airstrike campaign, raising the possibility of an even more destructive escalation.
Iranian officials, in turn, have warned that any direct strikes on the country’s nuclear facilities could trigger a broader and more severe conflict. Megan Sutcliffe, a security analyst with the London-based intelligence firm Sibylline, cautions that the current tit-for-tat dynamic between the US and Iran could lead to a full-scale resumption of war. As the US continues to target critical infrastructure such as ports, bridges, and energy facilities, Iran is likely to respond with similar strikes on US interests and those of its regional rivals. Sutcliffe warns that this pattern of action and counteraction is likely to continue in the coming weeks, bringing the region closer to a worst-case scenario.
Despite the US’s overwhelming military presence and hundreds of airstrikes across Iranian territory, Washington has yet to eliminate Tehran’s ability to disrupt traffic through the Strait of Hormuz. Grieco points out that it doesn't take much to paralyze one of the world's most important shipping routes. Even if the US were to destroy 95% of Iran’s missile launchers, drones, and other related assets, the remaining 5% would still be sufficient to cause significant disruption. Iran's weapons, such as the widely used Shahed drones, are mobile, numerous, and distributed across the country, making them hard to track and destroy completely.
This challenge has led to a broader realization that the US's military dominance may not lead to a decisive outcome. Historically, US interventions in Iraq and Afghanistan demonstrated that military power alone is not enough to guarantee political success. In both cases, initial victories were quickly followed by prolonged conflicts with no clear resolution. Similarly, in the current situation with Iran, the US has already managed to eliminate several high-ranking Iranian military officials and establish air superiority. Yet these successes have not translated into a sustainable de-escalation or a restoration of safe shipping through the Strait of Hormuz. As long as Iran retains the ability to threaten this vital passage, the conflict is likely to continue in some form for the foreseeable future.