Eritrea Warns of UAE, Israel, Ethiopia Red Sea Axis

Eritrea’s Foreign Minister Osman Saleh has warned of an emerging strategic convergence involving the United Arab Emirates, Israel, and Ethiopia in the Horn of Africa. Speaking to the Qatar-backed outlet Middle East Eye in a September 2026 interview, Saleh characterized these relationships as a coordinated effort that threatens regional stability. However, geopolitical analysts suggest the formulation oversimplifies the distinct historical origins and current motivations of these three states.

Reviving Historical Geopolitical Narratives

According to Middle East Forum analysis, Saleh’s rhetoric echoes arguments deployed during Eritrea’s struggle for secession three decades ago. In that period, Eritrean nationalists positioned their cause as part of a wider Arab-Israeli contest over the Red Sea. They argued that Eritrean independence would serve regional interests by countering what they perceived as an Israeli and Western strategic presence anchored in Ethiopia.

This framing gained traction in the 1960s and 1970s, with Israeli security assistance to the Ethiopian regime and Arab support for Eritrean insurgents creating a clear geopolitical divide. A 1970 U.S. National Intelligence Estimate noted that Eritrean broadcasts increasingly linked the U.S., Israel, and Ethiopia, illustrating how the local conflict was being internationalized within the broader Arab-Israeli context.

Divergent Modern Diplomatic Strategies

The contemporary Middle East differs significantly from the era cited by the Eritrean regime. The United Arab Emirates, like many Gulf states, has established diplomatic relations with Israel and developed extensive bilateral cooperation. This pragmatic approach contrasts with the zero-sum ideological framing of the previous century, suggesting that current regional dynamics are driven by economic and security interests rather than historical blocs.

Ethiopia’s foreign policy has also evolved into a more pragmatic, multi-vector strategy. Its relationship with Israel predates the current regional order and has survived significant political changes within Addis Ababa. Analysts argue that interpreting current ties as evidence of a newly constituted project directed against other states ignores the long-standing and complex nature of Ethiopia’s international engagements.

Assessing Future Regional Dynamics

The disconnect between Eritrea’s historical narrative and current diplomatic realities raises questions about the sustainability of its regional positioning. As Ethiopia pursues overlapping interests with Gulf Arab states and maintains its own strategic calculations, the old binary of Arab versus Israeli spheres of influence appears increasingly outdated. The coming months will likely reveal whether these historical narratives can influence current policy or remain rhetorical tools.