Nigeria’s Coup Risk: Expert Warns Against Complacency
A new academic study argues that while Nigeria has maintained civilian rule since 1999, the underlying conditions that fueled recent African coups remain present, urging a reevaluation of democratic delivery and military professionalism.
The resurgence of military takeovers across West and Central Africa has prompted a renewed scrutiny of Nigeria’s political stability. According to a recent study published by GN geopolitics/coup, the country cannot afford to assume that a return to military rule is a thing of the past. The analysis suggests that the structural factors driving instability in neighboring nations are still visible within Nigeria’s own political and economic landscape.
Dr. Abdul-Wasi Moshood, an associate professor of Political Science at Lagos State University, authored the report titled “Closing the Barracks Gate? Notes on Preventing Military Coups in Nigeria.” The study posits that preventing future interventions requires more than post-coup condemnation. It calls for a fundamental shift in how democracy delivers tangible benefits to citizens, alongside a professional restructuring of the armed forces to reduce their political appeal.
Drivers of Contemporary Instability
The research identifies three primary catalysts for recent military interventions in Africa: the democratic dilemma, foreign influence, and colonial legacies. Moshood argues that traditional theories of military intervention, while useful for historical analysis, fail to fully capture the complexities of the current wave of coups in Mali, Niger, Guinea, and Chad. These cases serve as cautionary examples, illustrating how perceived failures in governance can create a fertile environment for military actors to justify their involvement in politics.
The study emphasizes that the
Public Sentiment and Democratic Deficit
Public discourse in Nigeria has increasingly reflected dissatisfaction with the outcomes of civilian rule. Former Cross River State Governor Donald Duke recently asserted that citizens were better off under military administration, citing the high costs of governance without corresponding improvements in welfare. He pointed to deteriorating healthcare, infrastructure deficits, and an increase in children out of school as evidence that the
Strategic Implications for Stability
Nigeria’s unique position as a regional heavyweight makes its internal stability critical for the continent. The study notes that the disputed 2023 presidential election saw youths marching to the Defence Headquarters in Abuja, calling for military intervention. This incident, combined with the coup in neighboring Niger, has heightened concerns about a potential
The objective of the research is not merely to predict whether a coup is possible, but to identify and eliminate the conditions that make military intervention attractive. By addressing elite impunity, strengthening institutions, and ensuring the military remains a professional body detached from political ambitions, Nigeria can close the gate on future instability. The forward question remains how effectively these structural reforms can be implemented before external or internal pressures trigger a crisis.
