Reported Secret Truce Between Nigeria and Boko Haram

According to an investigation by The New Humanitarian, the Nigerian government has been maintaining a secret ceasefire with Boko Haram for the past three months. The reported truce, which began in June, marks a significant pause in years of sustained conflict in the country’s northeast, though officials have not publicly acknowledged the arrangement.

The agreement reportedly emerged from negotiations that secured the release of 360 civilians abducted from Ngoshe village. Located in the foothills of the Mandara Mountains near the Cameroonian border, the community had been repeatedly targeted by the armed group. Multiple sources with contacts among senior Boko Haram figures indicated that the truce is likely to be extended for another forty days.

Negotiations Centered on Civilian Release

The abduction of the villagers occurred in March during an attack on a nearby military base. Reports suggest that negotiations for their release included a payment of five billion naira, approximately $3.7 million, by the Nigerian state. This alleged financial transfer has sparked controversy domestically, as government officials have denied paying any ransom to the group.

Al Jazeera English has been unable to independently verify the existence of the ceasefire or the reported payment. The New Humanitarian noted that it contacted government, defense, and army spokespeople for comment but received no response before publication. The lack of official confirmation leaves the status of the truce in a state of uncertainty.

Exclusion of Rival Armed Groups

The reported agreement does not extend to the Islamic State West Africa Province, a rival faction operating in the same region. Hostilities between Boko Haram and this group have continued despite the truce with the former. This distinction highlights the fragmented nature of the insurgency, where ceasefires with one group may not impact the broader security situation in the Lake Chad basin.

Divergence Between Public and Private Policy

The secret arrangement stands in contrast to the public stance of President Bola Tinubu, who has rejected negotiations with the group designated as a terrorist organization. Instead, the administration has focused on expanding military capacity, including plans to recruit 30,000 additional personnel and establish four new army divisions. However, security officials and diplomats familiar with previous efforts suggest that dialogue has been a recurring, albeit unsuccessful, tactic.

Conflict researcher Malik Samuel cautioned that the current pause should not be interpreted as the start of a lasting peace process. He described it as a temporary tactical ceasefire that benefits both sides without altering the war's trajectory. There are also concerns that Boko Haram may use the break to move equipment into the rugged terrain of the Mandara Mountains, potentially strengthening its position for future operations.