Revisiting Ruth First's Analysis of the Sahelian Coup Belt

The recent surge in military takeovers across the African continent has reignited academic and political interest in the structural conditions that facilitate such disruptions. Since 2020, eleven successful coups have occurred in countries ranging from Guinea-Bissau to Sudan, a pattern that observers have described as a contiguous "coup belt" stretching from West Africa to the Horn. While each event has distinct local drivers, the frequency and geographic clustering of these incidents suggest broader systemic issues in the region's political architecture. This context has led scholars to revisit historical analyses, particularly the work of Ruth First, whose insights into the mechanics of power in postcolonial states appear strikingly relevant to the current crisis.

Ruth First’s book, The Barrel of a Gun: Political Power in Africa and the Coup d’État, originally published in 1970 and reissued by Verso this year, offers a detailed diagnosis of why military intervention often appears as a viable, if destructive, political option. First argued that the seizure of government by armed men is "infectious" and "effortless" in contexts where civilian institutions are weak. Her analysis highlights how the control of key state instruments—such as the radio station, the barracks, and the airport—can allow a small group to effectively arrest the state itself. According to recent commentary, this perspective provides a necessary counterpoint to narratives that view coups solely as isolated incidents of individual ambition or foreign interference.

Structural Vulnerabilities in Postcolonial States

The statistical landscape of African political instability underscores the depth of these structural challenges. From 1950 to 2023, an estimated 220 coups were attempted on the continent, with 109 successful, representing nearly half of all global attempts during that period. Among Africa’s fifty-four countries, forty-five have experienced at least one attempt, and thirty-seven have seen successful military takeovers. This data suggests that rapid and disruptive political change via the military is not an anomaly but a recurring feature of the region's political history. The prevalence of these events indicates that the foundations of state authority in many nations remain fragile, often dependent on personalistic rule rather than robust institutional consensus.

While local contexts vary significantly, common threads link the recent coups in the Sahel and beyond. In Mali, instability traces back to 2012, driven by military dissatisfaction with counterinsurgency operations against the Tuareg rebellion. In Niger, the history of coups is intertwined with anti-French sentiment, the presence of uranium resources, and shifting geopolitical alignments, including the encroachment of Russian interests. However, analysts note that external factors, such as weapons sales and the militarization of security in response to the global War on Terror, have contributed to a landscape where military actors possess significant political leverage. The interplay of these local and global dynamics creates an environment where the state is often vulnerable to internal fracture.

Historical Context of Military Power

Ruth First’s analysis was rooted in her own experience as a political activist and member of the South African Communist Party. Born in 1925 in Johannesburg to Jewish immigrants from Eastern Europe, First grew up in a politically engaged household and became involved in the anti-apartheid struggle early in her life. Her work on coups and militaries was informed by a lifelong interest in revolution, armed resistance, and the nature of political power. Although she was a white South African, her perspective offered a critical view of how colonial legacies and postcolonial state-building interacted to create conditions ripe for military intervention. Her writing remains significant because it connects the specific mechanics of a coup to the broader historical process of political underdevelopment in the region.

The reissuing of First’s work highlights the enduring relevance of her diagnosis. The "effortless" nature of taking power, as she described it, reflects a reality where civilian institutions have not fully consolidated their authority over the military. This lack of institutional depth means that the military often acts as a political actor in its own right, capable of reshaping the political landscape with minimal resistance. The current wave of coups can thus be seen not merely as a series of discrete events, but as a symptom of a longer-term political condition that has been identified and analyzed for decades. Understanding this history is crucial for interpreting the ongoing instability in the Sahel and other parts of the continent.

Implications for Future Stability

Looking ahead, the challenge for African states and their international partners is to address the structural weaknesses that make coups so frequent. The "coup belt" phenomenon suggests that regional dynamics play a significant role, with instability in one country often influencing its neighbors. According to geopolitical analysts, a sustainable solution requires moving beyond reactive security measures to focus on building resilient political institutions that can mediate conflicts without resorting to violence. This involves addressing the root causes of military involvement in politics, including economic grievances, ethnic tensions, and the lack of democratic accountability.

The renewed focus on Ruth First’s work serves as a reminder that the political condition of Africa is not merely a product of recent events, but of a long historical process. The "coup wave