Somalia Food Security Outlook Warns of Persistent Famine Risk

A new assessment by FEWS NET indicates that the risk of Famine, classified as IPC Phase 5, remains a credible possibility in southern Somalia from October through January 2027. Although recent xagaa rains have been better than anticipated, offering temporary relief to some agricultural zones, the long-term outlook remains severe. Under the most likely scenario, populations in the Bay Bakool Low Potential Agropastoral and Sorghum High Potential Agropastoral livelihood zones will face Emergency conditions, with specific groups reaching Catastrophe levels. This projection holds for riverine livelihood zones, excluding the Lower Shabelle, as well as the Southern Agropastoral Livelihood Zone in Hiiraan and numerous internally displaced person settlements.

The agency warns that while current improvements in crop yields may delay the worst outcomes, these gains are expected to be short-lived. If extreme and widespread flooding occurs, it could lead to extensive agricultural losses and prolonged isolation of communities. Such conditions would cut off access to markets and lifesaving services, likely triggering a full Famine classification. Conversely, in areas with higher livestock holdings, Crisis outcomes are expected to persist, driven by high food prices and limited milk availability, even as water and pasture conditions improve slightly during the upcoming deyr rains.

Seasonal Shifts Alter Livelihood Zones

In the Bay and Gedo regions, the Sorghum High Potential Livelihood Zone is currently projected to face only Crisis outcomes through September. This relative stability is attributed to the better-than-expected harvests following the recent rains. However, FEWS NET anticipates that this respite will end in October, when conditions are expected to deteriorate back to Emergency levels. In the northern and central pastoral areas, widespread Crisis and Emergency outcomes are expected to persist, with some households facing Catastrophe. The primary drivers remain low livestock holdings and constrained food access, despite modest improvements in conception rates and milk production in the Northern Inland Pastoral Livelihood Zone of Sanaag and Sool.

Displaced Populations Face Severe Constraints

Internally displaced persons continue to represent one of the most food-insecure groups in the country. Many major IDP settlements are expected to experience Emergency outcomes, with specific populations reaching Catastrophe levels. The situation for these communities is exacerbated by repeated displacements, which disrupt established coping mechanisms. Additionally, high food prices and heightened competition for increasingly limited income-earning opportunities severely constrain their ability to secure adequate nutrition. The convergence of these factors suggests that without significant intervention, the most vulnerable groups will remain in critical condition well into the next year.

Monitoring Flooding and Market Access

According to the GN auto geopolitics/africa: Somalia security desk, the coming months will be pivotal in determining whether the projected Famine risk materializes. The key variable to watch is the intensity of the flooding, which could negate the benefits of the recent rains by destroying crops and isolating communities. Stakeholders should closely monitor agricultural losses in the riverine zones and the accessibility of markets in the Bay Bakool and Hiiraan regions. The transition from Crisis to Emergency in October will serve as a critical indicator of the broader food security trajectory, requiring rapid response to mitigate the impact of anticipated isolation and service disruption.