Modi and Xi Meet at BRICS Amid Border and Trade Tensions
The upcoming summit offers a critical opportunity for substantive dialogue, even as deep-seated disputes over borders and trade imbalances persist between the two Asian giants.
As the BRICS summit convenes in India, the scheduled meeting between Chinese President Xi Jinping and Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi stands as the central diplomatic event. Beijing confirmed Xi's attendance on Thursday, marking his first visit to India since 2019 and his first since the deadly border clashes in 2020 that froze bilateral relations. According to Vrinda Sahai, a research analyst at Carnegie India, this gathering presents a crucial moment to leverage the multilateral setting for a substantive bilateral discussion.
The engagement follows a gradual thaw in ties, including Modi’s recent visit to China for the SCO summit. However, significant friction points remain, particularly regarding the decades-long border dispute and India’s substantial trade deficit with China. As reported by GN geopolitics/border, the summit serves as a stage for New Delhi to demonstrate its multi-polar alignment while managing the complex dynamics of its relationship with Beijing.
Diplomatic Reset Continues
Recent diplomatic efforts have shown tangible progress, notably following an August meeting between Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi and Indian National Security Advisor Ajit Doval. Both sides expressed satisfaction with the steady resumption of people-to-people exchanges, including border trade and pilgrimages through Himalayan passes. Chietigj Bajpaee of Chatham House notes that these steps are likely to build confidence and advance the ongoing reset in bilateral relations.
Signs of improving connectivity include the resumption of direct flights and New Delhi’s relaxation of rules regarding Chinese investment. This rapprochement occurs against a backdrop of strained relations with the United States over trade and tariffs, prompting India to proactively strengthen ties with other major powers. The strategy aligns with India’s broader commitment to strategic hedging, as evidenced by recent resource and trade deals with Australia, Indonesia, Uzbekistan, the United Kingdom, and the European Union.
Persistent Border Disputes
Despite the diplomatic warming, distrust remains evident. In August, Beijing reportedly denied the Indian Army access to key patrolling points and encroached on land in the northeastern state of Arunachal Pradesh. These incidents highlight that the border issue, which has roots dating back to the 1962 war, remains a sensitive and unresolved matter. The 2020 conflict had plunged relations into a deep freeze, and while progress has been made, the underlying tensions have not been fully resolved.
Experts caution that observers must manage expectations regarding the summit's outcomes. Sahai points out that BRICS was established to reform global financial and governance architectures, not to solve geopolitical conflicts like border disputes. Therefore, while the summit provides a platform for dialogue, it is not designed to be the sole forum for resolving India-China border tensions.
Economic Asymmetries Dominate Agenda
Trade imbalance is expected to be a high-priority topic for New Delhi. China remains India’s largest business partner, with total trade reaching a record $151.1 billion in the year ending March 2026. However, India faces a massive deficit due to its heavy dependence on Chinese exports for critical inputs and components. This economic asymmetry complicates the diplomatic narrative and remains a sticking point in the bilateral relationship.
Looking ahead, the focus will be on whether the summit yields concrete agreements to address these economic disparities or if it primarily serves to maintain dialogue channels. The interaction between economic interdependence and geopolitical competition will define the next phase of India-China relations.
