Philippines Pursues Middle Power Status Amidst Regional Tensions
Manila is actively seeking to elevate its diplomatic standing by forging partnerships with key international actors, aiming to counterbalance assertive maritime claims in the South China Sea.
As great power competition reshapes the geopolitical landscape, the Philippines is moving to solidify its role as a significant middle power in the Western Pacific. According to the GN auto geopolitics/asia-pacific: South China Sea desk, Manila is seeking to expand its diplomatic options to better navigate the complex dynamics involving China and other regional stakeholders.
This strategic pivot comes as the United States and China appear intent on establishing a bipolar order, prompting other nations to reassess their positions. For the Philippines, with a population of nearly 118 million and a GDP ranking 35th globally, establishing credibility as a middle power is seen as essential for maintaining influence in regional affairs, particularly in countering perceived dominance over the South China Sea.
Broadening Diplomatic Alliances
In recent years, Manila has accelerated its efforts to build strategic partnerships with other middle powers. In 2023, the country formalized a strategic partnership with Australia. Momentum continued into 2026, with President Ferdinand Marcos Jr. and Japanese Prime Minister Takaichi Sanae declaring a comprehensive strategic partnership in May.
Further strengthening this network, the Philippines elevated its relationship with Canada to a strategic partnership in July, aligning with Ottawa’s broader push for middle power cooperation. During the same period, Manila also upgraded its ties with the European Union to an enhanced partnership, signaling a broadening coalition of like-minded nations focused on international stability.
Maritime Disputes and Legal Stance
The drive for greater diplomatic weight is directly linked to ongoing tensions in the South China Sea, where China claims approximately 90 percent of the area through its nine-dash line. Manila has consistently rejected these expansive claims, asserting its rights to the Exclusive Economic Zone in what it refers to as the West Philippine Sea.
A pivotal moment occurred in 2016 when an arbitral tribunal under the UN Convention on the Law of the Sea ruled that major elements of China’s claim were unlawful. Although Beijing declared the findings void, the Philippines maintains that the decision upholds international law, a stance that has fueled frequent maritime clashes and heightened volatility in the region.
Shifting Political Approaches
The current administration’s approach marks a distinct departure from previous policy. Following the 2016 tribunal decision, former President Rodrigo Duterte pursued a strategy of appeasement toward Beijing. In contrast, President Marcos Jr., who took office in 2022, has adopted a firm stance, publicly condemning aggressive actions and upholding the legal framework established by the international tribunal.
By bolstering maritime security alliances with partners such as the United States, Japan, and Canada, the Philippines aims to create a more robust buffer against unilateral actions. Observers note that this shift reflects a broader desire to be taken seriously on the world stage, moving beyond mere regional dynamics to engage with global middle power structures.
