Declassified files reveal prior warnings of Ceuta border surge
Newly released intelligence reports indicate that Spanish and Moroccan authorities received specific alerts regarding coordinated attempts to breach the Ceuta border, sparking debate over the scale of the July crisis.
Declassified documents indicate that Spain’s National Intelligence Center, or CNI, transmitted detailed warnings to both Madrid and Moroccan counterparts regarding planned mass crossings into the enclave of Ceuta. These records, released amid ongoing political tensions, suggest that intelligence agencies were aware of specific social media campaigns organizing the event just before tens of thousands of migrants arrived in late July.
The release of forty documents has intensified scrutiny of how the crisis was managed, particularly given the proximity of the warnings to the actual breach. While the Spanish government maintains that the intelligence did not predict the magnitude of the event, opposition figures argue that the data provided sufficient grounds for a more robust preventive response.
Intelligence alerts preceded the border breach
According to the declassified files, the CNI sent an alert on July 29, the day before the mass crossing, indicating that social media groups were calling for an assault on the fence and sea routes at 8 pm. The agency noted that these groups combined had approximately 180,000 followers, highlighting the scale of the online coordination. On the same day, Madrid also shared these concerns with Moroccan intelligence agencies, specifically the DGST and DGED, warning that the plans might leverage the distraction of Morocco’s Throne Day celebrations.
Government response contrasts with opposition claims
Spanish Prime Minister Pedro Sanchez has rejected the notion that the warnings constituted a prediction of the crisis’s scale, stating in a social media post that the information was being monitored but did not indicate the nature or probability of the subsequent events. He emphasized that while the existence of the campaign was known, it did not serve as a reliable indicator of what followed. In contrast, Ester Munoz, a spokeswoman for the Popular Party, accused the government of direct responsibility for the invasion of Ceuta, arguing that the administration possessed the necessary information to act but failed to do so.
Assessing Moroccan conduct during the crisis
The documents also shed light on the role of Moroccan authorities, with a CNI note from July 30 stating that it was highly unlikely that Moroccan officials actively encouraged the migratory wave. Instead, the agency described their behavior as negligent and passive, noting that the deployment of riot control units was insufficient to manage the crowd. Despite earlier leaks alleging permissiveness from police, Sanchez has maintained there is no evidence of a planned operation by Morocco, a stance that remains a point of contention in the diplomatic discourse reported by GN geopolitics/migration (en-US).
