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10-Year Yield Hits 4.9% as Oil Tops $100

By Markets Desk · 2026-09-10 · Updated 2026-09-10 23:15 UTC
A stack of government treasury bonds and a bar chart showing rising interest rates
Illustration: Tradingbird

With the 10-year yield now at 4.963% and oil surpassing $100, equity markets have slipped for a fourth consecutive day amid sticky inflation data. Futures traders have increased the odds of a Federal Reserve rate hike to 71%, driven by surging energy costs and expectations that September price pressures will outweigh recent PPI signals.

  • Kiplinger reports that the 10-year Treasury yield has further climbed to 4.963%, marking its highest level since 2023, while the 2-year yield also hit a post-2024 peak. Futures markets are now pricing in a 71% probability of a rate hike at next week's Fed meeting, up from 61% previously, as traders weigh the impact of record-high diesel prices and an eight-day streak of rising oil costs.

    Source: GN auto markets/bonds: treasury yields

  • The 10-year US Treasury yield reached 4.906% Thursday. Crude oil prices crossed $100 per barrel. Inflation fears remain high ahead of the Fed meeting.

    Source: GN auto markets/bonds: bond yields
Based on reporting by GN auto markets/bonds: bond yields and GN auto markets/bonds: treasury yields, compiled by the Tradingbird desk.

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