US 10-year Treasury yield hits 4.8 percent
The US 10-year Treasury yield has climbed to a three-year high of 4.84% as geopolitical conflict in the Middle East drives oil prices above $100. This inflationary pressure has shifted Fed expectations, with markets now pricing in a significant probability of rate hikes in September and December rather than cuts.
New data from GN auto markets/bonds highlights that the yield spike is being driven by renewed US-Iran military tensions and Brent crude breaching $100. Consequently, market pricing now favors a 60% chance of a September rate hike rather than a hold, with further increases to 86% by December as inflation fears persist.
Source: GN auto markets/bonds: treasury yieldsThe US 10-year Treasury yield reached 4.8 percent on Friday. This level marks the highest point since October 2023. The market is approaching a 5 percent threshold that has been rare in the last two decades.
Source: GN auto markets/bonds: bond market
