Brazil Record Exports Drive Arabica Coffee Lower

December arabica coffee futures fell 0.36% to settle lower. The drop follows data showing Brazil exported 4.155 million bags in August. This volume marks a record high for the month. November robusta coffee also declined 0.23%. The market is adjusting to a sudden increase in global supply.

Brazilian exporter Cecafe reported that August exports rose 31% year-over-year. Arabica shipments increased 26% to 2.87 million bags. Robusta exports jumped 54% to 953,592 bags. The Brazilian Trade Ministry confirmed these figures with a separate report. August exports reached 206,618 metric tons. This is the highest level in eight months.

Global Supply Surplus Emerges

The International Coffee Organization projects a record global crop. 2025/26 production is estimated at 183.6 million bags. Global consumption is forecast to fall 0.9% to 180.6 million bags. This creates a surplus of 3 million bags. It is the first surplus in five years.

Weather conditions in Brazil support this bearish trend. Rainfall in Minas Gerais reached 127% of the historical average. This moisture benefits flowering for next year’s harvest. More supply is expected to enter the market soon.

Robusta Faces Mixed Signals

Vietnam’s coffee sector presents conflicting data for traders. Heavy rains in the Central Highlands threaten farm infrastructure. However, export volumes remain high. Vietnam exported 1.33 million metric tons of coffee from January to August. This represents a 13.7% increase year-over-year. Production is projected to rise 6% to a four-year high.

Inventory Levels Diverge

Stock levels on the ICE exchange show a split market. Arabica inventories fell to 218,467 bags on Thursday. This is a 27-year low. Robusta inventories climbed to 5,004 lots last Wednesday. This is a 9.25-month high. The divergence highlights tight arabica supplies against ample robusta stockpiles. As noted by GN markets/commodities (en-US), these inventory shifts are key drivers of the current price action.