Commodity Index Hits 423, Highest Since 2008
The FTSE Commodity CRB Index reached 423.11, marking a 42% gain for the year. This is the sixth super rally since 1957.
The FTSE Commodity CRB Index closed at 423.11 on September 10. This level represents a 42.0% increase from 297.82 at the start of the year. It is the highest reading since the 2008 global financial crisis. This marks the sixth major rally of this magnitude in the index history since 1957.
Three factors drive this broad-based price surge. First, supply disruptions from the Middle East conflict. Second, rising industrial demand from AI infrastructure. Third, a weakening US dollar. These forces push prices higher across multiple asset classes simultaneously.
Hormuz Blockade Cuts Oil Flows
Brent crude futures have reclaimed the $100 per barrel mark. The Strait of Hormuz remains effectively blockaded since the February 28 conflict. Iran attacked ten vessels near the strait on September 9. The US military sank five Iranian oil tankers in response.
Crude volumes through the strait have collapsed. Flows dropped from 8-9 million barrels per day to below 2 million barrels per day. International Energy Agency data shows trackable inventories at 7.9 billion barrels. This is a decline of 410 million barrels since February. Global refined product inventories are near rock bottom.
Industrial Metals Post Broad Gains
Copper futures have risen more than 47% over the past year. This demand is driven by the proliferation of AI data centers. Gold prices have gained over 20% during the same period. Silver prices have increased by more than 50%.
European natural gas prices approached $23 per million BTU. This is nearly double the level before the US-Iran conflict. The rally shows breadth beyond just crude oil. Metals and energy commodities are moving in tandem.
Banks Raise Price Forecasts
Bank of America raised its second-half Brent forecast to $83. The bank sees prices between $95 and $120 if disruptions persist. A worst-case scenario of infrastructure damage could push prices to $150. Goldman Sachs set its December Brent forecast at $85.
Goldman Sachs notes vessel attacks could push prices to $120. Normalized regional exports could bring prices back to $80. Morgan Stanley also projects higher average prices. Analysts at GN markets/commodities (en-US) confirm these trends align with structural shifts in supply and demand.
