Copper hits record high as smelting costs turn negative
LME copper prices reached a peak of USD 14,737 per tonne in September 2026. Treatment charges have collapsed to negative USD 1,300.
Copper prices on the London Metal Exchange reached a record high of USD 14,737 per tonne in September 2026. This represents an increase of nearly 50 percent over the past year. The International Primary Copper Association attributes this rally to a structural mismatch between global mining output and smelting capacity.
The market is currently absorbing the impact of anticipated US tariffs and tighter mine supply. These factors have reshaped inventory distribution and price expectations across major trading hubs.
Inventory shift to US markets
Hundreds of thousands of tonnes of copper have moved to the United States since the start of the year. Traders sought the price premium available between Comex and LME markets. Comex stocks have surged to a record 675,000 tonnes.
Conversely, inventories in LME warehouses have fallen to critically low levels. This concentration of stock in the US tightens metal availability in other global markets. The US Commerce Department report on potential import tariffs is nearly two months overdue. The market continues to price in the possibility of trade restrictions, which supports elevated prices.
Smelting costs turn negative
Treatment and refining charges have fallen to unprecedented levels of negative USD 1,300 per tonne. This is a sharp drop from positive levels of roughly USD 300 to 400 per tonne. The decline indicates that smelters face increasing financial pressure as competition for copper concentrates intensifies.
China continues to expand its smelting capacity, placing additional pressure on constrained concentrate supply. Operational challenges at three to four major mines have kept global mine output slightly weaker. This divergence creates a structural constraint rather than a temporary imbalance.
Strategic commodity status rises
Copper is increasingly viewed as a strategic industrial commodity. Its use in power grids, electric vehicles, and renewable energy infrastructure drives demand. The IPCPA highlights the need to address the gap between mining and processing capacity as this demand rises.
