Copper prices hit record high on supply mismatch

Copper prices on the London Metal Exchange reached 14,737 USD per tonne in September 2026. This level represents a 50 percent increase over the past year. The Indian Primary Copper Producers Association attributes this rise to a mismatch between mining and smelting capacities.

Supply tightness and inventory shifts are the primary drivers of this rally. US tariff expectations have further intensified market volatility. These factors have pushed global copper prices to unprecedented highs.

Inventory shifts concentrate copper in US

Hundreds of thousands of tonnes of copper moved to the United States this year. Traders shipped this metal to capture the premium between Comex and LME prices. Comex stocks now stand at a record 675,000 tonnes.

LME warehouse inventories have fallen to critically low levels. This divergence concentrates copper stocks in the US. Global mine output has also declined slightly due to operational issues at key mines.

Smelting costs turn negative for producers

China continues to expand its smelting capacity. This expansion pressures the supply of copper concentrates. Treatment and Refining Charges have dropped to negative 1,300 USD per tonne.

Previous levels for these charges were positive at 300 to 400 USD per tonne. This collapse places severe financial stress on smelters. It highlights a widening gap between mining and refining sectors.

Strategic role in energy transition grows

The Indian Primary Copper Producers Association describes these challenges as structural. They affect the global copper market fundamentally. Copper plays a strategic role in industrial growth and electrification.

The association represents major Indian producers including Hindalco and Vedanta. They note that energy transition needs rely on stable copper supplies. The current market structure threatens this stability.