Wheat Prices Fall as USDA Raises Global Stock Estimates

The wheat complex traded lower across all major markets on Friday. Chicago Soft Red Winter contracts lost between 13 and 18.25 cents at midday. Kansas City Hard Red Winter futures dropped between 17 and 26 cents. Minneapolis Spring Wheat contracts fell between 13 and 16 cents.

The US Department of Agriculture raised global wheat stocks by 3.04 million metric tons to 276.29 million metric tons. This increase offset reductions in Russian and Ukrainian exports. Australian output was revised up by 3 million metric tons, while Canadian production rose by 1 million metric tons.

US Production Estimates Remain Steady

USDA left the United States production estimate unchanged for this month. The agency is waiting for the Small Grains Summary scheduled for September 30. US carryout stocks remained steady at 717 million bushels. The rest of the US supply and demand balance sheet was also left unchanged.

Export Sales Miss Market Expectations

Weekly export sales data was released on Monday due to a holiday delay. Net sales for the 2026/27 wheat season totaled 194,233 metric tons. This figure was below the trade estimate range of 250,000 to 500,000 metric tons. Sales were down 37.64 percent from the previous year.

Futures Prices Show Mixed Moves

September CBOT Wheat settled at $7.13.50, down 9.75 cents. December CBOT Wheat closed at $7.23, down 18.25 cents. September KCBT Wheat traded at $8.04.25, up 12.5 cents. December KCBT Wheat fell to $7.93.50, down 25.25 cents. September MIAX Wheat rose to $7.42.75, while December MIAX Wheat dropped to $7.48.75.

According to GN markets/commodities (en-US), the market reaction reflects the increased global supply outlook. The delay in the US export report added to investor uncertainty. Traders are now focused on the upcoming September 30 data release. This report will provide the next significant update on US grain conditions.