Bitwise CIO Reverses Outlook After CLARITY Act Defeat
Matt Hougan withdrew a bearish warning within 24 hours of the Senate vote, citing market resilience despite the legislative failure.
Bitcoin rose 38% between July 1 and September 4, 2026. The price climbed from $57,950 to over $80,000. This gain occurred while the probability of the CLARITY Act passing fell from 39% to 18%.
Bitwise Chief Investment Officer Matt Hougan reversed his earlier bearish stance. He had warned in January that the bill's failure would stall the sector. He changed his view within one day of the Senate defeat on September 15.
Senate Vote Defeats CLARITY Act
The Senate voted 49 to 50 against the CLARITY Act. The vote took place on September 15, 2026. Hougan initially compared the bill to a seasonal indicator for market stagnation.
He framed the defeat as a minor setback the next day. He called it a speed bump rather than a major obstacle. This shift in tone drew significant media attention.
Market Moves Defy Legislative Odds
Polymarket odds for the bill dropped significantly. Bitcoin prices moved in the opposite direction. The market did not correlate with the declining legislative probability.
Major firms continued to expand their crypto operations. Robinhood launched its mainnet on July 1. Morgan Stanley released a Solana ETF for its wealth channel.
DTCC settled its first batch of tokenized stock trades. Hougan noted that these firms rely on current regulatory bodies. He described this as clarity of conviction without clarity in law.
Regulatory Risks Remain Intact
Hougan retained three key limitations in his memo. Agency rules can be reversed by future administrations. Only Congress can expand CFTC authority over spot markets.
The CLARITY Act would have provided a more durable framework. Hougan accepted a weaker regulatory structure due to market performance. He maintained a cautious outlook for the near term.
