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August CPI Data Sets Stage for Fed Rate Decision

By Markets Desk · 2026-09-10 · Updated 2026-09-11 10:35 UTC
A balance scale with one side weighing down under the pressure of rising costs
Illustration: Tradingbird

Markets await today's August CPI data, where a projected 3.4% year-on-year increase is expected to be driven largely by a rebound in energy prices. This report is critical for the upcoming Fed meeting, as a hotter core CPI reading could solidify expectations for a rate hike, which is currently priced in at 73%.

  • GN markets/inflation (en-US) highlights that energy costs are the primary driver behind the expected headline CPI acceleration, with gasoline prices projected to jump over 4% month-over-month. The source also notes that a core CPI print of 0.3% would significantly bolster the case for a 25-basis-point rate hike, a scenario currently priced in at 73% probability.

    Source: GN markets/inflation (en-US)

  • Consumer prices are projected to rise 3.4% year-on-year, a figure that will heavily influence the Federal Reserve’s upcoming policy meeting.

    Source: GN markets/inflation (en-US)
Based on reporting by GN markets/inflation (en-US) and GN markets/inflation (en-US), compiled by the Tradingbird desk.

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