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August Inflation Forecast at 3.3% Year Over Year

By Markets Desk · 2026-09-09 · Updated 2026-09-10 17:26 UTC
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Illustration: Tradingbird

Economists and prediction markets forecast August annual inflation at 3.3%, but new data indicates monthly price growth is accelerating to 0.4% due to energy costs. This mixed signal complicates the Federal Reserve's outlook, with analysts divided on whether the central bank will hold rates steady or resume hikes.

  • Kalshi markets now price in a 0.4% monthly increase for August CPI, signaling a sharp acceleration from July's 0.1% rise, according to GN markets/inflation (en-US). This monthly spike is expected to be driven primarily by higher oil prices linked to geopolitical disruptions.

    Source: GN markets/inflation (en-US)

  • Economists forecast a slowdown in annual inflation to 3.3% for August. This data point is critical for the Federal Reserve's upcoming decision on interest rates.

    Source: GN markets/inflation (en-US)
Based on reporting by GN markets/inflation (en-US) and GN markets/inflation (en-US), compiled by the Tradingbird desk.

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