Core Goods Prices Fall Ahead of August CPI Report

TD Securities projects the August Consumer Price Index will show a 0.19% month-over-month increase in core inflation. The bank attributes this figure to a decline in goods prices, specifically in the core goods ex-vehicles segment. This sector is expected to drop by 0.15% compared to July, reversing previous gains. The reduction is driven primarily by lower prices for household goods and apparel.

Analysts report no meaningful tariff passthrough pressures on consumer prices during this period. They note that underlying inflation stayed under control in August due to these offsets. However, the bank warns that risks to the forecast remain skewed to the upside. This is based on their assumption of large declines in categories exposed to tariffs, which may not materialize fully.

Prediction Markets Align on Monthly Data

Traders on Polymarket largely align with TD Securities on the monthly core inflation rate. Approximately 57% of the prediction market favors a 0.2% month-over-month core CPI increase. This closely tracks the 0.19% projection from the bank. In contrast, the annual figures show a slight divergence between market expectations and bank forecasts.

A 2.4% year-over-year core CPI print is the leading Polymarket expectation at 47% probability. TD Securities forecasts a lower 2.3% year-over-year rate for core CPI. This difference highlights a modest gap in how long-term inflation trends are priced by different participants in the market.

Headline Inflation Regains Momentum

Headline inflation is projected to rise by 0.37% month-over-month in August. This increase is driven by a 4.2% jump in gasoline prices. The core services segment is expected to print a 0.26% month-over-month increase. This lift is fueled by firmer shelter inflation and rising airfares.

Airfare prices are expected to climb 3.2% from July levels. Despite the expected rise in headline numbers, TD Securities projects core inflation will continue to evolve positively through October. The bank maintains that the underlying trend remains favorable for disinflation over the coming months.

Equity Markets Show Mixed Performance

The S&P 500 index has advanced 11.88% year-to-date in 2026. The Nasdaq Composite index was up 13.71%, while the Dow Jones gained 9.10% over the same period. On Tuesday, the SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust closed lower, down 0.55% to $765.96.

The Invesco QQQ Trust ETF advanced by 0.083% to close at $718.36. The State Street SPDR Dow Jones Industrial Average ETF Trust ended the session 1.13% lower at $528.03. Premarket trading on Tuesday saw SPY down 0.45%, QQQ fall 0.64%, and DIA drop 0.73%. This data was reported by GN markets/inflation (en-US).