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US Inflation Data May Force Fed Rate Hike

By Markets Desk · 2026-09-11 · Updated 2026-09-11 09:15 UTC
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Illustration: Tradingbird

With August CPI expected to hold steady at 3.4%—well above the Fed's target—markets are pricing in a 71.4% chance of a rate hike next week. New data indicates inflation is outpacing wage growth for the fifth straight month, while energy costs remain elevated as crude oil prices exceed $100.

  • Business Insider notes that August inflation is projected to remain flat at 3.4%, continuing to outpace the 3.1% growth in average hourly earnings for a fifth consecutive month. The report also highlights that Brent crude has surpassed $100 per barrel due to ongoing geopolitical tensions, adding pressure to energy costs ahead of the Fed's decision.

    Source: GN markets/inflation (en-US)

  • The August CPI report arrives Friday with a 3.4 percent year-on-year forecast. This figure sits well above the Federal Reserve's 2.0 percent target. Market pricing indicates a 71.4 percent probability of a quarter-point rate increase next week.

    Source: GN markets/inflation (en-US)
Based on reporting by GN markets/inflation (en-US) and GN markets/inflation (en-US), compiled by the Tradingbird desk.

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