US Job Loss Risk Perception Hits 44.4% in August
The probability consumers assign to higher unemployment a year from now rose to 44.4%. This is the highest level recorded since April 2020. The increase affected all age, education, and income groups.
The mean probability consumers assign to unemployment being higher in one year rose 1.6 percentage points to 44.4%. This figure marks the highest reading since April 2020. The increase spanned all age, education, and income groups. At the same time, the perceived probability of finding a new job after losing one fell 0.8 percentage points to 45.4%. This level sits just below the 12-month average of 45.5%.
The perceived probability of losing a current job declined to 13.8%. This is the lowest level since February. The expected voluntary quit rate rose to 19.5%. Consumers feel safer in their current roles while expressing concern about the broader labor market. Income expectations show little change. Median expected household income growth remained at 3.0% in August. This range has held between 2.8% and 3.0% since June 2025.
Household Savings Limit Job Search Duration
The August PYMNTS Consumer Expectations Index found 19% of households reported deteriorating financial lifestyles. Only 7.1% reported improved circumstances. The share of households living paycheck to paycheck and struggling with bills rose from 18% to 27%. Savings determine how long a household can operate without replacing lost earnings. Just 26% of households with deteriorated finances could cover more than three months of expenses from savings.
The corresponding share among stable households was 46%. Among households with improved finances, the share was 62%. A difficult job search shortens the time before a household must reduce purchases. It also forces families to draw down savings or borrow. The exposure is greater for consumers already struggling with monthly bills. These figures come from GN markets/jobs (en-US) data and Federal Reserve reports.
Credit Pressure And Inflation Expectations Persist
The average perceived probability of missing a minimum debt payment in the next three months rose 1.2 percentage points. The new level is 13.2%. This figure is slightly above the 12-month average. More consumers stated that credit was harder to obtain than a year earlier. Expectations for credit availability over the next year also deteriorated. Median one-year inflation expectations remained at 3.6% in August.
Five-year inflation expectations held at 3.0%. Three-year expectations declined 0.1 percentage point to 3.2%. Consumers expected higher price growth for gas, food, and medical care. They also projected higher costs for college education. These factors combine to tighten household budgets. The labor market outlook remains a key driver of consumer risk tolerance.
