Vietnam targets 10 percent GDP growth for 2026

Vietnam expects to achieve a GDP growth rate of 10 percent in 2026. Dr. Huynh Thanh Dien of Nguyen Tat Thanh University confirms the target is attainable based on data from the first eight months of the year. The primary objective is not a single year’s result. It is to maintain an average annual growth rate above 10 percent throughout the 2026-2031 period.

Pursuing high growth at all costs is dangerous. Dr. Dien argues that decision-makers must build a sustainable foundation. Capital must flow into production and business circulation. When enterprises operate efficiently, capital flows unlock and growth follows. Making unfounded decisions under pressure can force the economy to pay a price later.

Structural shift required for sustained expansion

The 2026-2030 period sets a target of at least 10 percent average annual growth. This is significantly higher than the 6-7 percent trajectory of previous decades. MSc Nguyen Thi Chinh from the Institute of Economic and Financial Strategy and Policy notes that expanding investment capital and labor alone is insufficient. The economy must improve labor productivity and total factor productivity.

The private sector holds a special position in this new model. It employs the majority of the workforce and mobilizes social resources. This sector must transform market opportunities and technology into production. Building a private enterprise force capable of accumulating capital and mastering technology is fundamental. This shift is a precondition for moving toward high-income status by 2045.

Macroeconomic indicators show mixed signals

The Institute of Economic and Financial Strategy and Policy reports GDP growth of 8.18 percent in the first six months of 2026. Processing and manufacturing industries have recovered strongly. Services and consumption continue to expand. Social investment, foreign direct investment, and budget revenue all increased. The labor market and business operations show signs of improvement.

However, export growth relies heavily on the FDI sector. Domestic enterprises show significantly slower export growth. The number of businesses withdrawing from the market remains high. Registered labor in newly established businesses has decreased. Imports are increasing faster than exports. The trade surplus is rising, indicating heavy dependence on input imports and international services.

Balancing growth with stability risks

The Macroeconomic and Forecasting Department assesses the current high growth level against international fluctuations. They note that the economy remains dependent on imported inputs. This dependency creates macroeconomic risks. Policy must balance the push for 10 percent growth with the need for stability. Avoiding excessive reliance on external factors is critical for long-term resilience.

GN markets/growth (en-US) highlights the tension between short-term targets and long-term capacity. The focus must shift from chasing numbers to building endogenous production capacity. Efficiency in capital use is the key metric. The goal is a developed, high-income economy by 2045. This requires a fundamental change in how resources are utilized and managed.