EIA Lifts 2026 Brent Forecast by $22 Due to Supply Cuts
The EIA projects 2026 Brent crude will average $91.01 per barrel, a $22 increase over last year’s forecast.
The U.S. Energy Information Administration projects the 2026 Brent spot price will average $91.01 per barrel. This figure is $21.97 higher than the 2025 average of $69.04 per barrel shown in the September STEO. The agency expects prices to fall to $73.74 per barrel in 2027. These estimates appear in the latest short-term energy outlook released by the EIA.
Quarterly data shows Brent at $89.11 per barrel in the third quarter of 2026. The price is projected to rise to $90.66 per barrel in the fourth quarter. First quarter 2027 prices are set at $84.90 per barrel. Second quarter 2027 prices drop to $77.00 per barrel. Third quarter 2027 prices fall to $70.03 per barrel. Fourth quarter 2027 prices reach a low of $63.94 per barrel.
Supply Constraints Drive Price Increases
Global crude prices rose in August due to restricted Middle East exports. Production shut-ins increased as a result. The EIA attributes this to the renewed U.S. blockade on Iranian oil exports. Iran’s attacks on tankers in the Strait of Hormuz triggered these measures. New sanctions from the Treasury Department also target Iranian oil interests.
Saudi Arabia faced similar disruptions in the Bab el-Mandeb strait. Exports from the Yanbu port dropped by half in August compared to July. Vortexa estimates confirm this decline. Saudi Arabia is now using the Suez Canal for shipments. This route is longer and more costly for Asian customers. Ship-to-ship transfers are also being utilized outside the Persian Gulf.
Production Shut-Ins Rise to Record Levels
Crude oil production shut-ins averaged 6.7 million barrels per day in August. This is up from 5.0 million barrels per day in July. Flows through the Strait of Hormuz and Bab el-Mandeb remain constrained. The EIA assumes these restrictions will continue through the fourth quarter of 2026. Shut-in volumes are expected to average 5.7 million barrels per day during that period.
Shippers are finding workarounds to maintain oil flows. The EIA expects Middle East supply to gradually increase. This adjustment process will take time. Market volatility remains high due to these geopolitical factors. The previous August STEO had projected a lower 2026 average of $86.81 per barrel. The latest data reflects significant upward revisions in price expectations.
