S&P 500 Historical Data Shows 95% Probability of Gains Post-Midterms
Historical data indicates a 95% probability of positive S&P 500 returns in the year after midterm elections, with an average gain of 14.5% since 1950. The Globe and Mail advises positioning in major index ETFs such as VOO, VUG, and QQQ, citing their superior long-term performance and specific multi-year return averages.
The Globe and Mail's analysis highlights that while September often brings volatility, the S&P 500 has historically delivered an average 14.5% return in the twelve months following midterm elections since 1950, a trend underpinned by the strong multi-year performance of index funds like VOO, VUG, and QQQ.
Source: GN auto markets/indices: stock indexThe Globe and Mail adds specific performance metrics to its recommendation, noting that the Vanguard S&P 500 ETF has averaged 15.3% annual returns over the last decade, while the Invesco QQQ Trust has delivered 21% annually and outperformed the broader market in 88.5% of rolling 12-month periods.
Source: GN auto markets/indices: stock indexThe Globe and Mail now specifies that while September is typically a volatile month, the S&P 500 has risen 95% of the time in the 12 months following midterms since 1938. The publication highlights specific performance metrics, noting that VOO has delivered a 15.3% average annual return over the last decade, while QQQ has outperformed the broad market 88.5% of the time on a rolling basis.
Source: GN auto markets/indices: stock indexA Globe and Mail piece from the GN auto markets/indices feed now extends this historical outlook into actionable strategy, recommending three specific ETFs—Vanguard S&P 500, Vanguard Growth, and Invesco QQQ—as primary vehicles to capture the anticipated post-election rally. The article highlights that while September often brings volatility, the 95% historical success rate since 1938 suggests these broad index funds are well-positioned to benefit from the typical post-midterm recovery.
Source: GN auto markets/indices: stock indexHistorical data from Fidelity indicates a 95% probability of positive returns for the S&P 500 in the twelve months following midterm elections. The average return for this period since 1950 is 14.5%.
Source: GN auto markets/indices: stock index
