EUR/USD Near 1.1475, but Bearish Under 100-Day SMA
The euro trades near 1.1475, yet the pair remains technically bearish below the 100-day moving average.
Key points
- EUR/USD trades near 1.1475 but remains technically bearish below the 100-day SMA.
- German political instability and Fed hawkishness create conflicting pressures on the pair.
- Support is at 1.1445, with resistance at 1.1545 on the daily chart.
EUR/USD trades near 1.1475 in Tuesday’s early European session. The pair holds gains but remains technically bearish below the 100-day simple moving average.
Risk sentiment improved as traders watched US-Iran talks at the UN General Assembly. Federal Reserve officials, including John Williams, are scheduled to speak later today.
German political risks weigh on euro
The far-right AfD took first place in Mecklenburg-Vorpommern on Sunday. Chancellor Friedrich Merz’s CDU suffered its worst regional defeat in postwar history.
MUFG analysts note that the CDU’s 4.9% vote share undermines confidence. This political instability may pressure the euro in the near term.
Fed hawkishness supports the dollar
Fed Governor Lorie Musalem signaled a preference for earlier rate hikes. She warned that inflation will likely stay above the 2% target without tightening.
The FXS Fed Sentiment Index rose by 0.42 points to 149.96. This confirms a hawkish tone that supports the dollar against lower-yielding peers.
Technical bias remains bearish
The pair slides along the lower half of the Bollinger envelope. The 14-day RSI at 36 shows selling pressure is still dominant.
Immediate support sits at 1.1445, while the first upside barrier is at 1.1545. As noted by FXStreet, the technical structure favors sellers near-term.
