30-year mortgage rates projected to hold near 6 percent
New forecasts suggest 30-year fixed mortgage rates will stabilize around 6.0 percent by 2031, driven by persistent Treasury yields.
The 30-year fixed mortgage rate is projected to settle at 6.0 percent by 2031. This figure combines a declining 10-year Treasury yield with a narrowing lender spread. Current market data shows the 30-year rate at 6.76 percent as of September 9. The 10-year Treasury yield stood at 4.88 percent during the same period. The spread between these two instruments was 1.88 percentage points.
Mortgage rates are closely linked to government bond markets. Lenders price loans based on Treasury yields plus a risk premium. This premium has widened in recent years compared to the decade before 2020. Analysts now expect this spread to contract slightly over the next five years. The forecast assumes a spread starting at 2.00 points in 2027 and dropping to 1.90 points by 2031.
Treasury yields anchor the long-term outlook
Deloitte economists forecast the 10-year Treasury yield will decline to 4.0 percent by 2031. They project a rate peak before the end of 2027. Falling oil prices and lower inflation are expected to support this trend. The Federal Reserve is anticipated to cut rates before late 2027. This policy shift will reduce borrowing costs for long-term debt.
Other institutions see slightly higher long-term yields. Goldman Sachs analysts expect the 10-year note to reach 4.5 percent by 2035. The Congressional Budget Office projects a yield of 4.3 percent by 2030. These estimates reflect ongoing pressures from inflation and payroll growth. The consensus view remains that yields will remain above historical lows.
Lender spreads remain sticky in recent years
The gap between Treasury yields and mortgage rates has widened significantly. From 2010 to 2020, the spread was often near 1.5 percentage points. Recent data shows the spread hovering around 2.5 percentage points. A government buyback program launched in January 2026 has stabilized this difference. It has prevented further widening but has not forced a sharp decline.
GN auto markets/bonds: interest rates reports indicate that the spread is currently sticky. Lenders continue to demand a premium for credit risk. This factor prevents mortgage rates from falling as fast as Treasury yields. The projected 2.0 point spread in 2027 reflects this persistent market condition. A gradual decline to 1.9 points is expected by 2031.
Homebuyers face stable but elevated costs
Borrowers should expect mortgage rates to remain in the low 6 percent range. Significant drops below 5 percent are not projected in the next five years. Waiting for a major rate decline may not yield substantial savings. The baseline forecast suggests a floor of 6.0 percent by 2031. This level balances lower Treasury yields against persistent lender premiums.
