TipRanks Data Shows NEOV, SFIX Face Largest Implied Earnings Moves
TipRanks options data indicates NEOV and SFIX face the highest expected price volatility ahead of Wednesday's earnings releases.
Key points
- TipRanks data shows NEOV faces the highest implied earnings move at 36.66% on September 23.
- Costco is expected to have the lowest implied move at 3.61% on September 24.
- Options premiums rise before earnings due to uncertainty and fall sharply after results are released.
TipRanks analysis of at-the-money straddles reveals that investors expect significant price swings for several major retailers and industrial firms reporting earnings between September 22 and 24, 2026. The data isolates the cost of uncertainty embedded in options premiums, which typically spikes before announcements and collapses immediately after results are released.
The implied moves reflect the market’s pricing of potential upside or downside surprises, with expectations ranging from a modest 3.61% for Costco to a substantial 36.66% for NEOV. These figures provide a direct measure of the risk-reward profile that traders are currently underwriting for each company’s upcoming disclosure.
Wednesday reports drive highest volatility
Wednesday, September 23, marks the peak of expected volatility, led by NEOV at a projected 36.66% move. Splits Apparel (SFIX) follows with an implied 20.42% swing, while Carl's Jr. (CBRL) is priced for a 14.31% shift. These figures indicate that the options market anticipates disproportionately large reactions to these specific earnings releases compared to other firms on the calendar.
Other Wednesday reporters include General Mills (GIS) at 8.62% and Paychex (PAYX) at 7.63%. Cintas (CTAS) is expected to see a smaller 5.32% move, suggesting the market perceives lower uncertainty around its performance relative to its peers in the business services and retail sectors.
Costco and AutoZone show lower expectations
In contrast, Costco (COST) is set for the lowest implied move in the group at 3.61% on Thursday. This minimal expected volatility suggests that traders view the company's financial outlook as having less binary risk compared to smaller-cap peers. Similarly, AutoZone (AZO) is priced for a 9.73% move on Tuesday, indicating moderate uncertainty around its automotive parts sales performance.
Options pricing captures pre-earnings uncertainty
The disparity in these figures highlights how the options market segments risk across different business models. Higher implied moves for companies like NEOV and SFIX reflect greater leverage to operational changes or lower liquidity, while the lower figures for COST reflect the stability and predictability associated with large-cap retail giants. This mechanism ensures that the cost of hedging or speculating aligns with the perceived probability of extreme outcomes.
