Exxon Mobil Forecasts 65% Surge in Global Power Demand

Exxon Mobil Corp. (NYSE:XOM) projects that global electricity demand will increase by approximately 65 percent by 2050. This surge is attributed to rising living standards, industrial expansion, the proliferation of data centers, and the widespread adoption of electric vehicles. The company’s 2026 Global Outlook indicates that overall energy consumption will rise as economies expand and incomes grow, although the share of electricity in the total energy mix is expected to climb from roughly 20 percent to 30 percent.

Despite the projected growth in consumption, Exxon Mobil anticipates a decline in global carbon dioxide emissions. The company estimates annual energy-related CO2 emissions will reach 30 billion metric tons in 2050, down from 36 billion metric tons in 2025. However, this revised figure is higher than the 27 billion metric tons projected in previous estimates. Prasanna Joshi, director of economics and energy at Exxon, noted that these emission levels could result in global temperature increases of 2.5 to 3 degrees Celsius, a range that exceeds the targets outlined in the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change’s “Likely Below 2°C” scenarios.

Oil and Gas Remain Core Energy Sources

The 2026 Global Outlook maintains that fossil fuels will continue to dominate the energy landscape. Global oil demand is expected to rise from just over 100 million barrels per day in 2025 to approximately 105 million barrels per day by 2050. While demand is projected to stabilize after 2030, it will remain above the 100 million barrel threshold through the end of the forecast period. This sustained consumption is driven by manufacturing, chemical production, and heavy-duty transportation sectors.

Natural gas demand is forecast to grow by about 20 percent, reaching roughly 520 billion cubic feet per day in 2050 from 440 billion cubic feet per day in 2025. Consequently, Exxon Mobil expects oil and natural gas to account for more than half of the global energy mix in 2050. Coal is also expected to remain a significant component, comprising 15 percent of the energy mix in 2050, a decline from its 25 percent share in 2025, but still a substantial contributor in many national energy systems.

Carbon Capture Estimates Revised Downward

Exxon Mobil has lowered its forecast for carbon capture and underground storage capacity. The company now projects that this technology will sequester 2 billion metric tons of CO2 annually by 2050, a reduction from the previous estimate of 3.1 billion metric tons. This adjustment reflects a more conservative view on the scalability and deployment of these technologies within the next two decades.

The company emphasized that its outlook represents a projection of potential outcomes rather than a single predetermined path. Future energy demand and emission levels remain subject to change based on technological breakthroughs, government policy decisions, geopolitical shifts, and evolving consumer behavior. Exxon Mobil’s analysis provides a baseline for understanding long-term energy trends, highlighting the continued reliance on hydrocarbons alongside the rapid growth of the electrical grid.