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US Steelmakers Trim Q3 Outlook Despite Margin Gains

By Stocks Desk · 2026-09-18 · 2 min read
A large industrial furnace glowing with intense orange heat inside a dark factory hall
Illustration: Tradingbird

Nucor and Steel Dynamics posted after-hours losses after issuing third-quarter earnings guidance below market consensus, citing cost pressures that offset strong pricing dynamics.

Shares of Nucor and Steel Dynamics declined in after-hours trading on Thursday following the release of their third-quarter financial outlooks. Both companies reported guidance figures that fell short of the consensus estimates tracked by FactSet, triggering a 3.7% drop for Nucor and a 3.4% slide for Steel Dynamics despite expectations of year-over-year growth.

According to data reported by GN markets/earnings (en-US), the market reaction reflects investor sensitivity to the gap between projected performance and prior expectations. While both firms anticipate higher earnings compared to the same period last year, the failure to meet current analyst projections has dampened sentiment ahead of the full earnings release.

Nucor Faces Cost Headwinds

Nucor projects third-quarter earnings per share between $5.55 and $5.65, a range below the FactSet consensus of $5.99. However, this figure remains significantly higher than the $5.04 reported in the second quarter and the $2.63 recorded in the year-earlier period. The company attributes the expected increase in its steel mills and products segments to higher average selling prices and stable volumes.

These positive factors are partially offset by rising costs of products sold. Conversely, the raw materials segment is expected to see a decline in earnings due to lower pricing and reduced shipment volumes. This mix of margin expansion in core operations and contraction in raw materials defines the company’s near-term profitability profile.

Steel Dynamics Cites Margin Expansion

Steel Dynamics forecasts third-quarter earnings per share of $5.34 to $5.38, which is below the $5.60 consensus estimate but exceeds the $3.69 from the previous quarter and $2.74 from a year ago. The company expects steel operations to generate significantly higher profitability than in the second quarter, driven by margin expansion and record shipment levels.

This improvement is supported by higher average realized steel selling values combined with lower scrap costs. In contrast, the metals recycling division is expected to see lower earnings due to tighter metal spreads and modestly lower shipment volumes. The divergence between the steel and recycling segments highlights the varying cost structures within the company’s operations.

Guidance Falls Short of Estimates

The collective miss against consensus highlights the challenging environment for US steel producers. Despite strong operational drivers such as record shipments and favorable price spreads, rising input costs and segment-specific headwinds have constrained the upside potential for earnings. Investors are now focused on how these cost dynamics will evolve in the upcoming full-quarter report.

Based on reporting by tradingview.com, compiled by the Tradingbird desk.

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