ASML Outpaces Qualcomm on 2026 Growth Estimates
ASML's projected 61% EPS growth for 2026 contrasts sharply with Qualcomm's expected declines, driven by rising EUV capacity commitments.
ASML Holding N.V. presents a stronger forward outlook than Qualcomm Incorporated, according to data cited by GN stocks/chips. The Dutch equipment maker projects a 36% increase in sales and a 61% surge in earnings per share for 2026. In contrast, Qualcomm's estimates for the same period indicate declines in both metrics. This divergence highlights a fundamental shift in the semiconductor value chain, where demand is concentrating on manufacturing infrastructure rather than end-user chip designs.
The performance gap is evident in market valuation and stock appreciation. ASML has gained 115% over the past year, reflecting investor confidence in its monopoly on extreme ultraviolet lithography. Qualcomm trades at a lower price-to-sales ratio, offering a relative value proposition, but lacks the same momentum. The core distinction lies in their roles: ASML supplies the essential hardware for creating advanced chips, while Qualcomm designs the processors themselves. As AI workloads drive the need for smaller, faster nodes, ASML's position as a gatekeeper to chip fabrication becomes more critical to industry growth.
ASML Expands EUV Capacity for 2027
ASML is materially increasing its manufacturing capacity to meet surging demand. The company plans to raise its 2027 Low-NA EUV capacity by approximately 30% compared to its 2026 baseline of roughly 65 systems. This expansion is directly tied to strong customer commitments, indicating that semiconductor manufacturers are locking in orders for advanced lithography tools. The move signals high visibility for future revenue, as capacity additions typically precede significant shipment volumes.
Qualcomm Faces Headwinds in Chip Design
Qualcomm is pivoting its strategy to integrate on-device generative AI across its Snapdragon lineup, targeting Windows laptops, desktops, and automotive applications. Despite this expansion into data center CPUs and AI accelerators, the company faces a challenging revenue environment. The expected declines in 2026 sales and EPS suggest that competition in the mobile and PC markets is intensifying. Unlike ASML, which benefits from the entire industry's drive toward miniaturization, Qualcomm must win specific design wins against rivals like Apple and Intel, making its growth trajectory more volatile and dependent on product adoption cycles.
AI Infrastructure Drives Equipment Demand
The rapid expansion of AI infrastructure is the primary catalyst for ASML's growth. Training and inference workloads require processors with higher energy efficiency and density, forcing a transition toward more advanced process nodes. This technical requirement directly boosts demand for ASML's lithography systems, which are necessary to etch these complex circuit patterns. As semiconductor manufacturers accelerate capacity expansion to handle this volume, ASML secures a stronger position in the supply chain. Qualcomm, meanwhile, must rely on the successful deployment of its AI features to drive unit sales, a process that is less certain and more subject to consumer and enterprise adoption rates.
