Intuit Reaffirms Fiscal 2027 Growth Targets Amid Valuation Reset
Intuit Inc. has reaffirmed its fiscal 2027 financial outlook, projecting 9-10% revenue growth and 23-24% non-GAAP EPS expansion despite significant year-to-date share price declines.
Intuit Inc. reinforced its fiscal 2027 financial trajectory during its recent Investor Day, maintaining revenue growth targets of 9% to 10% and non-GAAP EPS growth of 23% to 24%. The company projects total revenues between $23.28 billion and $23.51 billion for the year, with non-GAAP EPS expected in the range of $22.88 to $23.12. This guidance places the earnings outlook slightly below the current consensus estimate of $23.49, reflecting a cautious approach to the operating environment.
The reaffirmation occurs against a backdrop of significant market skepticism. Intuit shares closed at $313.13 on September 17, representing a year-to-date decline of approximately 52%. This performance lags behind competitors H&R Block, which has gained nearly 3%, and Block, which is up roughly 18% over the same period. The disparity highlights a broader reset in software valuations that has compressed Intuit’s multiple despite its fundamental growth plans.
Segment Performance Drives Revenue Mix
Intuit’s fiscal 2027 guidance reveals distinct growth rates across its business units. Global Business Solutions is expected to expand by 13% to 14%, while the Consumer segment is projected to grow between 4% and 6%. Credit Karma remains a key growth driver with expected expansion of 11% to 13%. Conversely, TurboTax is guided for modest growth of 2% to 3%, and Mailchimp is projected to see revenues decline by 1% or remain flat.
For the first quarter of fiscal 2027, the company anticipates 11% revenue growth and non-GAAP EPS growth of 30% to 33%. This translates to an EPS range of $2.44 to $2.48, which aligns closely with the current consensus estimate of $2.46. These near-term figures serve as a critical test of whether the full-year strategic plan is on track for execution.
AI Strategy Supports Long-Term Earnings
Management is prioritizing its “Big Bets” in assisted tax, money management, and mid-market offerings as primary engines for future growth. These initiatives expanded by more than 30% in fiscal 2026 and now constitute approximately 30% of total revenues. Intuit is embedding its AI capabilities across tax, accounting, and payments workflows to increase engagement and average revenue per customer while reducing manual operational tasks.
The company targets high-teens annual non-GAAP EPS growth over the longer term, emphasizing earnings compounding as a central component of its value proposition. This strategy aims to create a broader growth path compared to H&R Block’s tax-focused model and differentiates Intuit from Block’s payments ecosystem. The integration of AI is intended to sustain this growth trajectory despite macroeconomic headwinds.
Customer Growth Challenges Persist
A primary concern remains the disparity between monetization and customer expansion. Intuit acknowledged that new-customer growth in fiscal 2026 fell short of expectations. Specifically, TurboTax lost one point of IRS e-file share and three points of DIY tax e-file share. Additionally, total online paid-customer growth for the Business Platform slowed to 4%, indicating pressure on volume acquisition.
Management’s current priorities focus on accelerating customer growth and broadening product entry points to scale these high-value services. The objective is to convert strategic efforts into improved volume growth rather than relying solely on higher pricing and product mix. Recent estimate revisions show a southward trend for fiscal 2027, while fiscal 2028 estimates have seen marginal upward adjustments, reflecting mixed short-term confidence.
