Oracle Earnings Set for Tonight Amid Heavy Put Buying
Oracle shares sit 52% below their September 2025 peak as traders position against upside ahead of tonight's report.
Oracle (NYSE: ORCL) enters its quarterly earnings release on September 10, 2026, with shares trading at $158.62. The stock is down 17.83% year to date and has lost roughly half its value since surging 35.95% in a single session last September. This decline contrasts sharply with the broader market, where the S&P 500 and Nasdaq-100 have hit fresh highs.
According to data from GN markets/earnings (en-US), the primary driver of the recent sell-off is sentiment rather than fundamental deterioration. Implied volatility sits at 73, ranking among the top five in the S&P 500. The busiest options activity involves selling call options at the $150 strike for October, November, and December expiries, indicating a market consensus that expects limited upside from tonight's results.
Revenue and Cloud Metrics Guide
Management has guided first-quarter FY2027 revenue growth to 27% to 29% in U.S. dollars. Cloud revenue is projected to expand between 58% and 64%. Non-GAAP earnings per share are expected to reach $1.72 to $1.76, representing a 17% to 20% increase. Analyst consensus aligns with this range, forecasting $1.7391 in EPS on $19.13 billion in total revenue.
Backlog and AI Infrastructure Scale
The company’s remaining performance obligations totaled $638 billion at the end of the fourth quarter, a 363% year-over-year increase. Of this total, $75 billion is tied to prepaid or customer-supplied GPU arrangements. Cloud infrastructure revenue grew 93% in the prior quarter, while multi-cloud database revenue expanded 404%.
Oracle signed $67 billion in AI infrastructure contracts during the last quarter alone. Global GPU utilization currently stands at 97.5%, suggesting high demand for computing resources. These figures underscore the scale of the company's commitment to AI infrastructure, even as stock prices reflect skepticism about near-term execution.
Market Positioning and Analyst Views
Despite the bearish options positioning, 36 analysts maintain a Buy rating with an average price target of $241. The divergence between the stock price of $158.62 and this target highlights the current gap between market sentiment and long-term valuation models. Tonight's earnings report will serve as a critical test for whether the backlog translates into sustained shareholder value.
