Nebius and CoreWeave Backlogs Outpace 2026 Revenue Forecasts
AI infrastructure rivals Nebius and CoreWeave report contracted backlogs exceeding $140 billion combined, dwarfing their projected 2026 revenues.
Key points
- CoreWeave's contracted revenue backlog reached $104 billion, exceeding its 2026 revenue projection of $12.9 billion by a factor of eight.
- Nebius secured a backlog of over $40 billion, which is more than 12 times its projected 2026 revenue of $3.3 billion.
- CoreWeave operates 51 data centers with 250,000 Nvidia GPUs, while Nebius runs four centers with plans to add 14 more sites.
Nebius and CoreWeave have repositioned themselves as dedicated AI cloud providers by acquiring vast inventories of Nvidia GPUs to replace their legacy roles in search engines and cryptocurrency mining. Both companies have secured substantial contracted revenue backlogs that significantly exceed their current financial scale, positioning them to capture a growing share of the artificial intelligence infrastructure market.
According to analysis from The Motley Fool, these firms are leveraging high-performance computing capabilities to offer services that are substantially faster and more cost-effective than traditional hyperscaler offerings. Their business models rely on converting massive signed contracts into commercial revenue while expanding physical data center footprints across North America and Europe.
Infrastructure Scale and Service Differentiation
CoreWeave operates 51 data centers across North America and Europe, utilizing a fleet of more than 250,000 Nvidia GPUs to process AI workloads. The company claims its dedicated cloud infrastructure executes tasks approximately 35 times faster than major competitors like Amazon Web Services and Microsoft Azure, while achieving an 80% reduction in operational costs.
Nebius currently maintains four operational data centers in Finland, Iceland, and the United States, with plans to open 14 additional sites in the near future. Unlike CoreWeave, which focuses primarily on training large language models, Nebius provides customized AI services for data training, education, and robotics, integrating managed software to create a more diversified full-stack infrastructure solution.
Backlog Growth Exceeds Revenue Projections
CoreWeave’s contracted revenue backlog surged 246% year over year to reach $104 billion at the end of its latest quarter. This figure represents more than eight times the company’s projected 2026 revenue of $12.9 billion, indicating a significant pipeline of future earnings tied to major clients including Meta, Microsoft, OpenAI, and Anthropic.
Nebius experienced a similar surge in demand, with its contracted backlog more than quadrupling to over $40 billion by the end of the second quarter of 2026. This backlog is more than 12 times its projected 2026 revenue of $3.3 billion, supported by key accounts that also include Meta and Microsoft, highlighting the intense competition for dedicated AI computing resources.
Valuation Metrics Reflect Market Concerns
Despite aggressive growth expectations, both stocks trade at relatively low multiples of adjusted EBITDA due to investor caution regarding GAAP profitability and high debt levels. CoreWeave trades at seven times this year's adjusted EBITDA, while Nebius is valued at 15 times next year's adjusted EBITDA, reflecting skepticism about the capital-intensive nature of data center expansion.
Analysts project CoreWeave’s revenue and adjusted EBITDA to grow at compound annual growth rates of 101% and 110% respectively between 2025 and 2028. Nebius is expected to see revenue grow at a 253% CAGR over the same period, with adjusted EBITDA turning positive in 2026 and growing at a 212% CAGR thereafter, contingent on successful conversion of backlogs into cash flow.
