Options Traders Bet on Meta, Intel, Micron Record Highs by Year-End
Despite narrow market breadth, elevated call-to-put ratios and volatility data suggest traders expect Meta, Intel, and Micron to break new price records soon.
Key points
- Call-to-put volume ratios for SPY and QQQ hit multi-month highs, indicating strong institutional demand for bullish exposure.
- Meta and Intel have over 50% implied probability of touching new 52-week highs by late October, driven by elevated options activity.
- Micron and Sandisk are expected to reach record prices by year-end, while the broader DRAM ETF faces a lower 34% probability of a new high.
S&P 500 futures are trading at all-time highs, yet the New York Stock Exchange recorded 75 new 52-week lows against only 14 new highs on Tuesday. This narrow breadth has prompted options traders to aggressively accumulate bullish positions in major indices and specific tech leaders, signaling a belief that broader participation is imminent despite the current concentration in a few names.
The sharp rally on Monday forced institutional market-makers to buy upside calls to maintain hedging positions, driving the call-to-put volume ratio to its highest level since May. For the SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust (SPY), this ratio reached its peak since the first week of August, while the Invesco QQQ Trust (QQQ) recorded its highest call-to-put ratio in at least a year, according to data cited by CNBC.
Meta and Intel face high probability of new highs
Meta Platforms (META) is seeing options volume more than four times its 30-day average, with implied volatility skewing toward calls. Market pricing indicates a 52% probability that the stock will touch its previous closing high of $790 by October 2, reflecting strong bullish conviction among traders.
Intel (INTC), which has risen 35% over the past month, now carries an implied volatility of 69 as it reclaims its position as a semiconductor leader. Options markets assign roughly a 50% chance that the stock will exceed its prior closing high of approximately $140 by October 30, marking a significant shift in sentiment for the former AI laggard.
Memory sector rallies drive new expectations
Memory stocks provided a fresh boost to the rally on Tuesday, with the Roundhill Memory ETF (DRAM) advancing 2%. Individual shares in the sector showed strong momentum, including Sandisk rising more than 6% and Micron gaining over 3%, highlighting a broad-based recovery in the memory chip supply chain.
Options pricing suggests Micron is likely to reach a new high by October 23, while Sandisk is expected to hit a record by December 18. However, the DRAM ETF presents a more cautious outlook, with market-makers pricing in only a 34% chance of a new high by mid-December, despite the recent decline in implied volatility since summer.
