UBS Cuts 2027 PC Forecast on 766% Memory Cost Surge
UBS lowers 2027 PC shipment outlook to a 4.1% decline as memory costs spike, forcing consumers to delay purchases.
Key points
- UBS lowered its 2027 PC shipment forecast to a 4.1% decline from a previous 2.1% growth projection.
- DRAM and NAND memory costs have increased by 766% and 471% since mid-2025, driving higher PC prices.
- Half of surveyed consumers in the US and China plan to delay PC purchases due to rising component costs.
UBS Securities has lowered its forecast for global personal computer shipments in 2027, reversing a previous growth projection to an 11% year-on-year decline. The brokerage attributes this shift to a sharp increase in component costs that is eroding consumer purchasing power.
Dynamic random-access memory and flash NAND memory prices have surged 766% and 471%, respectively, since mid-2025. These cost pressures are driving higher retail prices for PCs, prompting a majority of surveyed consumers in the US and China to postpone or cancel their planned purchases.
Memory inflation drives purchase delays
A survey of 1,500 consumers conducted by UBS reveals that approximately half of respondents intend to slow down PC acquisitions due to higher memory prices. This figure represents a significant increase from the 37% recorded in the previous survey cycle.
Nineteen percent of participants stated they plan to forego buying a PC entirely. The share of consumers expecting to spend more on their next device rose by 300 basis points to 63%, a survey high that reflects the persistent inflation in hardware components.
2027 shipment outlook revised downward
UBS maintains its 2026 PC shipment estimate at 241.6 million units, which implies an 11% decrease compared to the prior year. For 2027, the brokerage now projects a 4.1% drop in shipments, replacing its earlier forecast of a 2.1% increase.
Analysts David Vogt and Andrew Spinola noted that memory costs are expected to remain elevated while CPU manufacturers implement double-digit price increases. This combination weighs on affordability, leading to a softer unit outlook despite modest price hikes in the market.
Brand preference shifts in key markets
Apple remains the most preferred PC brand in the US, with 27% of respondents selecting it, although this figure declined by 100 basis points sequentially. Competitors Dell and HP also saw drops in preference, falling to 16% and 4%, respectively.
In China, Apple’s preference rose by 300 basis points to 16%, while HP and Dell lost ground, dropping to 7% and 6%. Recent financial results show Dell’s client solutions revenue up 20% and HP’s personal systems revenue up 18%, though both missed or aligned closely with adjusted expectations.
