Vietnam Faces 61 Billion kWh Power Deficit by 2030
Vietnam projects a massive electricity shortfall driven by AI and data center demand, with only 5% of planned capacity currently operational.
Key points
- Vietnam projects a 61 billion kWh electricity deficit by 2030 due to rising AI and data center demand.
- Only 5% of planned generation capacity under PDP8 is operational, with 45% of projects lacking investment approval.
- The Ministry proposes 2,800 MW of rooftop solar and 2-3 GW of battery storage to mitigate short-term shortages.
Vietnam faces a projected electricity deficit of 61 billion kilowatt-hours (kWh) by 2030, according to an assessment by the Ministry of Industry and Trade. The gap stems from surging demand for data centers, artificial intelligence infrastructure, and electrified transport, which is outpacing the addition of new generation and grid capacity.
The shortage will escalate annually, starting with an estimated 2.9 billion kWh deficit in 2027 and rising to 50.4 billion kWh in 2029. Northern Vietnam is identified as the most vulnerable region due to concentrated industrial expansion and high-load projects that strain both generation and transmission infrastructure.
Current capacity implementation is lagging
Only 5% of the generation capacity planned under the revised Power Development Plan VIII (PDP8) has entered service after nearly three years of implementation. Reports indicate that 45% of projects lack investment approval, while 12% have approval but no selected investor. Consequently, many major generation and grid projects are unlikely to begin operating before 2030.
Transmission infrastructure is also significantly behind schedule, with construction initiated on only 10 of the 43 major projects planned for the 2026–2030 period. This delay exacerbates the risk of power shortages, particularly in regions requiring stable supply for semiconductor manufacturing and high-tech facilities.
Ministry proposes solar and storage targets
To address the gap, the Ministry proposes using state funding to install 2,800 MW of rooftop solar on public facilities like hospitals and schools by June 2027. Industrial facilities are encouraged to combine rooftop solar with battery energy storage systems, targeting 3,000–5,000 MW of solar capacity and 2–3 GW of battery storage before the dry seasons of 2027 and 2028.
Additionally, 1 GW of generation is expected to come online in 2027, followed by 3 GW of solar and 2 GW of wind in 2028 from approved projects. The Ministry is updating PDP8 to account for location-specific reliability needs, as AI facilities and high-speed rail require consistent, high-volume power supplies.
Long-term energy sources remain uncertain
Long-term supply remains uncertain due to delays in liquefied natural gas projects, which depend on incomplete port and pipeline infrastructure. The revived Ninh Thuan 1 and 2 nuclear power projects lack a clear implementation timetable, creating a potential supply gap beyond 2030 as AI and transportation demands expand.
