Geneva Talks Face Deep Rifts as Conflict Persists in Eastern DRC
Diplomats in Geneva are attempting to resolve the escalating crisis between the DRC and Rwanda, yet fighting continues in the east.
More than a year after the Democratic Republic of the Congo and Rwanda signed an agreement intended to end their confrontation, the two nations have returned to the negotiating table in Geneva. However, the guns have not gone quiet in eastern Congo. The dispute remains deeply entangled, involving the presence of the Democratic Forces for the Liberation of Rwanda, Rwandan military forces on Congolese soil, and the significant territorial control held by the M23 rebel group.
While Kinshasa and Kigali engage in bilateral talks, the Congolese government is simultaneously pursuing a separate dialogue with the political alliance backing M23. According to Al Jazeera English, these diplomatic tracks are distinct but inextricably linked to the same conflict. In Goma, a city captured by M23 fighters in January 2025, local residents judge the latest diplomatic efforts against the reality of ongoing displacement and destruction in their communities.
Sovereignty and security remain core issues
At the heart of the disagreement is the status of the FDLR, an armed group that emerged from the aftermath of the 1994 genocide against the Tutsi in Rwanda. Kigali views the group's presence near its borders as a persistent security threat. Under the Washington framework, Kinshasa agreed to a process aimed at neutralizing the FDLR, including demobilization measures. The Congolese government asserts that this process is currently underway and that it is meeting its commitments.
Rwanda, however, remains unconvinced. President Paul Kagame recently described the agreement on the FDLR as insufficient. Patrick Muyaya, the Congolese minister of information, rejected this assessment, accusing Kigali of maintaining expansionist ambitions in eastern DRC. The disagreement reflects a deeper structural conflict: Rwanda seeks credible assurances that hostile armed groups will not operate from Congolese territory, while Kinshasa argues that Rwanda’s security concerns cannot justify the presence of foreign forces on its sovereign soil.
M23 complicates the peace process
M23 is not a direct party to the Washington agreement, yet it is central to the conflict the agreement aims to contain. The group has dramatically altered the balance of power in eastern DRC by capturing Goma and later taking Bukavu, the capital of South Kivu. M23 operates under the political umbrella of the Congo River Alliance, which is engaged in a separate Qatar-led dialogue with Kinshasa. This creates a complex diplomatic landscape where the Geneva process focuses on the DRC-Rwanda confrontation, while the Qatar process addresses the dispute between the government and the M23 alliance.
On the ground, these conflicts cannot be easily separated. M23’s territorial control directly shapes Kinshasa’s strategic calculations, while the Congolese military response affects the security environment along Rwanda’s border. Rwanda’s concerns about armed groups in eastern DRC are bound up with its position toward M23, even as Kinshasa continues to demand the withdrawal of Rwandan forces. The interplay between these actors ensures that progress in one diplomatic track is likely to be constrained by developments in another.
Watch for shifts in military posture
The next phase of the crisis will likely be determined by whether the diplomatic talks yield tangible security guarantees. Observers should watch for any changes in the deployment of Rwandan forces or the effectiveness of FDLR demobilization efforts. Additionally, the outcome of the Qatar-led dialogue with the M23 alliance will be crucial. If these parallel tracks fail to produce a coordinated reduction in hostilities, the risk of renewed large-scale conflict in eastern Congo remains high.
